Five to nine tropical cyclones are expected to enter or form inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility for the remainder of the year, according to PAGASA Deputy Administrator Marcelino Villafuerte I.
But he said the upcoming storms are not expected to be more intense than some of the 15 storms that have so far affected the country.
“We are expecting two to four [cyclones] in the month of October. And then in November it’s two to three. And then one to two in December. So we’re expecting five to nine more tropical cyclones before the end of this year,” Villafuerte said.
“During the month of October, November, December, hindi naman natin inaasahan na mas malakas, ano. Pero more on landfalling na tropical cyclones. So that’s why yung preparations mas kailangan natin,” he explained.
“Base doon sa record natin, kapag buwan ng October, November, December, kapag last quarter of the year, most of Visayas and also Mindanao regions, sila na yung naaapektuhan those months,” Villafuerte added.
Nineteen people have been reported dead due to the combined impact of tropical cyclones Mirasol, Nando, Opong, and the southwest monsoon (Habagat), the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported.
Of the fatalities, four have been confirmed while 15 remain under validation. The agency also recorded 18 injuries—14 of which were confirmed—and 14 missing persons, all pending verification.
According to the latest situational report, 2,171,964 individuals, or 563,073 families, were affected across 15 regions, and 4,670 barangays.
Displacement has reached 81,428 people, with many taking shelter in 1,482 evacuation centers. Preemptive evacuations covered 408,523 individuals, or 114,255 families, in Regions 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, CAR, CARAGA, and the Negros Island Region (NIR).
The NDRRMC said 243 road sections and 46 bridges were affected, with 30 road sections in Region 1 still impassable. Power outages hit 143 cities and municipalities, though service has been restored in 105 areas.
Housing damage was reported at 5,282, with 726 houses completely destroyed in Regions 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, CALABARZON, Mimaropa, CAR, and BARMM.
Agricultural losses were pegged at ₱914.9 million from 78,267 metric tons of damaged production, while infrastructure damage reached ₱822.2 million, mostly in Regions 1, 2, 6, 7, CALABARZON, Mimaropa, and CAR.
Thirty-two local governments have declared a state of calamity.
Meanwhile, 103,505 families have already received aid out of the estimated 184,261 in need. Assistance so far has amounted to ₱68.8 million, the NDRRMC said.
The PAGASA official advised Filipinos, especially those residing in Mindanao, to remain updated with its forecasts which have advanced information.
Villafuerte said the expected cyclones are part of the “Christmas Typhoons” or the increased frequency in typhoons from December to February or the holiday season.
“Actually merong study yung ating kasamahan sa PAGASA kung saan they found out yung Christmas Typhoons, actually yung December, January, February na tropical cyclones yung na-mention nila sa study. They found out that they are increasing particularly doon sa Mindanao area,” he explained.
Villafuerte said they are also expecting “above normal rainfall” in parts of the country during the last quarter of the year due to the looming short-lived La Niña.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is the world’s most disaster-prone country in 2025, as tropical cyclones devastated communities all over the archipelago, while some flood control projects were found to not exist or “ghosts” while some are of substandard quality.
Released on Wednesday, the report was conducted by Germany’s Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and Ruhr University Bochum.
According to the 2025 WorldRiskIndex Report, the Philippines ranked first among 193 countries with a “very high” risk
Joining the Philippines in the top 15 are:
- 2. India – 40.73
- 3. Indonesia – 39.80
- 4. Colombia – 39.26
- 5. Mexico – 38.96
- 6. Myanmar – 36.91
- 7. Mozambique – 34.39
- 8. Russian Federation – 31.22
- 9. China – 30.62
- 10. Pakistan – 26.82
- 11. Bangladesh – 26.71
- 12. Papua New Guinea – 26.51
- 13. Vietnam – 25.92
- 14. Peru – 25.81
- 15. Somalia – 24.89
The score of each country is based on its exposure to disasters, such as weather disturbances, flood, and earthquakes, and its vulnerability or how it might be affected.
The report described the Philippines as a country “characterized by high geographic fragmentation and high exposure to weather-related extremes.”
It showed that flood risk in the country varies by region and is influenced by geography, infrastructure, and spatial planning.
