"The 2019 polls will serve as a testing ground for the 2022 presidential elections."
"The 2019 polls will serve as a testing ground for the 2022 presidential elections."
As the official campaign period kicked off last Tuesday, nothing much has changed in the race for the 12 senatorial seats this May. It’s still Senators Grace Poe-Llamanzares and Cynthia Villar slugging it out for the top spot.
This was bared by Ed Malay, Executive Director of The Center based for the latest results of the Pulso ng Pilipino prepoll survey conducted from Jan. 25 to 31.
The Center’s survey had Taguig Rep. Pia Cayetano unchanged at third, Senator Sonny Angara moving up to fourth as Senator Nancy Binay sliding down to fifth. Former Special Assistant to the President Bong Go who has launched a massive social media and audio visual campaign has moved up into a tie at sixth and seventh with Lito Lapid. Jinggoy Estrada remains strong in eighth place while former Presidential Adviser Francis Tolentino and losing presidential candidate Mar Roxas are locked in a tie at ninth to 10thplace. Senator Koko Pimentel in 11thplace and Senator JV Ejercito is at the tail-end but safely inside the magic 12.
Within striking distance are Bato de la Rosa at 13th, Bong Revilla at 14th, and Bam Aquino in a tie with Imee Marcos at 15th to 16thplace. Former Sen. Serge Osmeña is at 17th, Congressman Dong Mangudadatu is at 18th while former Congressman Neri Colmenares and former Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile are tied at 19th to 20th.
Malay said this scheduled May 13 poll is lacking in surprises and excitement except for former Special Assistant to the President Bong Go who barged into the Magic 12 although this is something that is to be expected. The Malasakit centers that go established in many depressed areas throughout the country enabled Go to establish a connection with the low-income households which actually comprise almost 60 percent of the country’s voting population.
Notwithstanding the vast network that former top cop Dela Rosa has organized, his campaign for a Senate seat appears to be hitting rock bottom. What started out as a strong drive for the senate, Dela Rosa’s campaign seems to have run onto a blank wall. The Center believes this could be the result of a lack of a clear and viable message that would entice the public into voting for him.
Tolentino, on the other hand, made up for his lack of mass appeal as those enjoyed by Lapid and Estrada by launching a dizzying campaign throughout the country which created a bandwagon effect that helped boost his chances, according to Malay.
In addition, digital monitors traced Tolentino’s social media accounts as enjoying a high rate of following at more than one million followers. This exposure more or less explains why he is safely inside the Magic 12.
The Center also traced the negative publicity directed at Revilla, Marcos and Aquino as contributory to their lackluster performance in the pre-poll survey despite their popularity.
What bears watching also is the value of endorsement of President Rodrigo Duterte as well as those of the other ranking officials of the government like House Speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and former Presidents Benigno Aquino III, Joseph Estrada and Fidel V. Ramos.
In the same Jan. 25-31, 2019 survey of Pulso ng Pilipino, the endorsement value of Duterte is placed at 19 percent, Macapagal-Arroyo at 12 percent, Ramos at 9 percent, Estrada at a poor 3 percent and Aquino at 2 percent. This clearly shows that candidates endorsed by PresidentDuterte will be coming into the elections with a 19-percent advantage over the other candidates.
What comes as a surprise is that many of those surveyed have now placed a value on the endorsement of the religious sector, granting for the sake of argument that these sectors will openly endorse candidates in the coming elections.
Some 15 percent of the respondents said they would consider candidates endorsed by the Catholic and other Christian groups while 9 percent said they would support the candidates endorsed by the Iglesia ni Kristo. Some 7 percent said they will support candidates to be endorsed by other religious denominations such as the protestant churches.
The Center clarified that this was included to try and test whether the religious sector can influence the outcome of the elections. The results will show that the amount of support from the voting public is at most negligible and would not be a factor in the conduct of the elections.
Malay said the Philippine political landscape has changed a lot. There is more emphasis today in the use of social media and digital campaigns. While the Philippines still lags behind its modern Southeast Asian neighbors, much of the country including the countryside are now wired or equipped with digital connectivity that makes it easier now for political candidates to disseminate their campaign materials through the online platform.
He added that the 2019 polls will serve as a testing ground for the 2022 presidential elections as there will definitely be a revamp of this campaign model given the introduction of new technologies with the advent of more young voters whose mindsets are different from the character of Filipino voters some 30 years ago