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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Rating Duterte administration’s first 9 months

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On March 30, 2017 the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte completed nine months of existence. Under normal circumstances nine months is a period long enough to justify an assessment of an administration; given the highly controversial nature of the Duterte administration; an assessment of the Duterte administration’s record is clearly in order.

How has the Duterte administration performed since it took over the reins of power nine months ago? Stated differently, what did Rodrigo Duterte and his people do with the mandate given to them by 38 percent of the people of this country?

From the standpoint of the economy, the record of the Duterte administration’s first nine months in office is arguably the worst of any postwar administration during the same period. Whether they actually said so or not, the administrations preceding Duterte’s strove to hit the ground running. The best example of this is the administration of Fidel V. Ramos, whose people lost no time putting plans into operation as soon as they moved into Malacanang. The Duterte folk also hit the ground running, but it wasn’t the economy that was uppermost in their minds. It was Mr. Duterte’s war on illegal drugs.

Indeed, the story of the Duterte administration’s first nine months in office is the story of Rodrigo Duterte’s war on illegal drugs and the things associated with it: Operation Tokhang, extrajudicial killings and vigilante killings, the provision of facilities for the candidates for rehabilitation and the filing of drug-related charges against individuals. Such have been the degree of interest and amount of resources invested by the Duterte administration in the illegal-drugs issue that other matters of governance – especially the management of the economy – necessarily suffered during the period from June 29, 2016 to March 29, 2017.

If the truth must be told, the Duterte administration produced nothing concrete for the Philippine economy during its first three quarters in office. It largely coasted along on the basis of the good economic environment bequeathed to it by the preceding administration. I refer in particular to the stable fiscal and monetary conditions left behind by Benigno Aquino III and his people.

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Not only did the present administration not deliver concrete achievements during its first nine months in office, but it also caused palpable harm to the economy during its first 270 days in office. By talking and conducting himself in an outrageous manner towards this country’s most important political and economic partners – the US and the members of the European Union (EU) – and by embarking on a so-called “independent” foreign policy – Rodrigo Duterte hurt, rather than enhanced, the prospects of the Philippine economy. At no time have the economic and political partners of the Philippines been as alarmed and confused about this country’s intentions and direction as they have been with Rodrigo Duterte in Malacanang.

The only accomplishments that Mr. Duterte can claim for his administration’s first nine months in office are the State and official trips that he has made to the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – the Philippines holds the 2017 chairmanship of ASEAN – and a number of other countries. The visits have invariably culminated in the signing of documents embodying promises of official assistance and investment intentions of the private sectors of the host countries. In keeping with the accustomed practice, Mr. Duterte has presented the documents to the Filipino people as evidence of concrete achievements. The official promises and private-sector intentions have once again involved enormous amounts of money. The promises and expressions of intent may translate into infrastructural facilities, factories and more productive farms: but abundant experience has shown that this is not always the case and that gaps eventually develop between funds promised and funds actually inward-remitted.

Moreover, the prospects of official assistance and private-investment inflows need to be matched against the possibilities of reductions in foreign exchange inflows resulting from Mr. Duterte’s badmouthing of the European Union and his refusal to receive future US economic assistance For the first time in the post-war era the international community’s economic relations with the Philippines could become a negative-sum game.

Summing up, the period from June 29, 2016 up to today arguably has been the most dismal first nine-months period in the history of the Philippine Presidency. There have simply been too many negatives and hardly any positives. For the sake of the 106 million people of this country – this piece of God’s creation that he possessively calls “my country” – one can only hope and pray that Rodrigo Duterte will shape up soon and start conducting himself the way the President of the Philippines needs to.

E-mail: rudyromero777@yahoo.com

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