Two weeks into the most severe form of lockdown, COVID-19 cases in the Philippines have not abated. The enhanced community quarantine that is aimed at curbing the spread of the more virulent Delta variant of COVID-19 has restricted mobility, shut down thousands of restaurants and retail outlets across Metro Manila, and eliminated millions of jobs.
The ECQ is taking its toll on the Philippine economy while proving less effective in containing the virus infection rate. It is also threatening to wipe out the gains achieved by the economy in the second quarter when it expanded 11.6 percent year-on-year.
The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee last week downgraded its 2021 gross domestic product growth forecast by two percentage points from the previous range of 6 percent to 7 percent to a band of 4 percent to 5 percent amid the latest ECQ in Metro Manila. The lower growth rate simply means fewer jobs than earlier projected, lower state revenues and more people joining the poverty rank.
The DBCC, which groups the country’s economic managers, prefers a balancing of COVID-19 risks with threats to the economy. Health and economic authorities managed to balance those risks in the second quarter when the economy partially reopened and COVID-19 cases slowed down until the Delta variant arrived in the Philippines.
Economic managers have long favored managing the COVID-19 risks by imposing granular lockdowns or selective quarantines, and allowing a greater number of people to earn a living. Limiting lockdowns to virus hotspots, instead of wide-scale quarantines, especially in key economic centers where the majority of Filipinos work, makes sense.
A street identified in Quezon City as a COVID-19 cluster, for example, should be locked down to effectively curb the virus spread in the community. The quarantine, however, should be limited to that place and in no way be applied to another barangay in the same city, or in Makati for that matter. Workers in other barangays or cities outside of the hotspots should not be penalized, and be allowed to do their jobs.
The best solution to COVID-19, of course, is widespread vaccination. But pending the extensive inoculation of the population, local government units must strictly enforce health protocols and social distancing, and ban super spreader events in their jurisdictions.