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Why the US won’t go to war with China

Why the US won’t go to war with China"Here’s what former Senate President Enrile thinks. "

 

 

China’s continued incursion into the West Philippine Sea and the inability of the Philippine government to stop it bring to fore the question: In the event, China invades the Philippines, will the United States, under the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) of 1951, go to war with China?

This is important as everyone appears incapable of stopping China from its aggressive expansion policy.

Under the 1951 MDT, the United States is obligated to come to the defense of the Philippines. Even President Duterte admits we are incapable of defending ourselves. 

My gulay, if ever China decides to take over the country, there’s nothing we can do but surrender within 24 hours, even less!

The United States keeps on saying that the MDT makes it obligatory for the US to defend the Philippines -- but, will it really?

I am no maritime expert, much less a military defense analyst. So I will rely on the insights of those who have been in the thick of discussions, like former Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile. He also spent many years as secretary of national defense under the Marcos administration.

During our last two Zoom meetings for the 365 Club, I asked Enrile whether he thought the US would really wage a war against China on our behalf. His answer: A big No. 

This comes from his consultations with US military and defense officials who he claims were party to the ratification of the treaty, as well as his views of the present situation.

First of all, according to Enrile, the MDT speaks of the US-Philippines relation as a Pacific ally. The treaty does not include the South China Sea, where the West Philippine Sea and the Philippine EEZ are located. 

Secondly, JPE cited the historical basis of China’s claim on the West Philippine Sea. The Chinese say this is covered by the so-called nine-dash line. The Permanent Court of the Arbitration ruled in the Philippines’ favor nonetheless.

The problem is that China does not recognize this ruling. 

There are, of course, other factors which make the United States unable to wage war against China. One of them is the possibility of a global nuclear war since the US knows quite well the nuclear capability of China and the existence of its allies, like Russia and other Middle East countries that also have nuclear capabilities. If this happens, God forbid, it will be the end of civilizations. The US certainly doesn’t want this. 

Santa Banana, there’s also the fact that American investments in China amount to billions of dollars. This affects the US substantially, my gulay! 

From the point of view of the United States, the Philippines is no longer as strategic as it was when the Subic Naval Base and the Clark Airbase were still existing. I hate to say this, but despite what the United States is saying that it will come to our defense, the fact is that the Philippines is no longer as important to the US as it once was.

And then there is the fact that the President of the United States cannot wage war on his own without getting the consent of the US Congress. And, my gulay, we all know how divided the US Congress is between the Republicans and Democrats.

Thus, I agree with the analysis of JPE. 

***

Of all the most stupid and idiotic statements coming out from Malacanang is that a Sara Duterte-Bong Go would be an unbeatable team for the 2022 elections.

Remarks like these coming from Malacanang can only make people think of the political dynasty of the Dutertes in Davao City. Aren’t there others outside of Davao?

Yes, I agree that Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio is a winnable candidate for President in 2022. But, to have a Sara-Bong Go as candidates both for the national leadership seems to imply that there are no other personalities capable of leading the country.

**

The inclusion of some Chinese Filipinos who have not been mentioned before in the Forbes 2021 richest list just shows that there are many billionaires who have remained unknown. 

There are more billionaires in this country that we can think of.

But, I  wonder: what has become of brothers Jaime and Augusto Zobel de Ayala, the Aboitiz family, Dennis Uy, and Manny Pangilinan?

I am convinced there are more of them. 

Topics: West Philippine Sea , China , Philippines , United States , Mutual Defense Treaty
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