“The bottomline is dough.”
In past elections, it was said that for a candidate for president to have a chance of winning, he or she must have at least P2 billion to P3 billion. Now I think the minimum amount has gone up to P5 billion, Santa Banana !
A tycoon like Manuel Villar would have no problem.
Thus, in effect, the chance to win depends on money. I am not saying that with money an aspirant can buy votes. What I am saying is for a candidate to have a chance at winning in a presidential election. And where is that kind of money coming from, my gulay?
It is for this reason that an aspirant like Bongbong Marcos and his running mate Sara Duterte must be endorsed by funded political parties. However, the biggest source of funding is from contributions from the usual sources, like taipans and tycoons. They taipans and tycoons spread their money to all they believe have a chance at winning.
I know for a fact that taipans and tycoons already know for sure who will win. They have their own ways. San Miguel Corporation’s Ramon S. Ang for instance, has the capability of knowing before elections who will win. He has, after all, thousands of retail and sari-sari stores. SMC also has thousands of Petron gasoline stations nationwide as sources for surveys.
Where do aspirants spend most of their money? The biggest expenditure goes to provincial rallies and sorties. The second is for placements on radio and television for their advertising, especially in the provinces. It also goes for posters and tarpaulins nationwide, aside from the fact that we know a moneyed aspirant can help local candidates fund their campaign.
Campaigning strategies and provincial sorties of presidential and vice presidential have not changed. When I was a younger journalist, I used to accompany the provincial sorties and rallies of those aspiring to become presidents and vice presidents, and I know.
When a candidate goes to the provinces, his or her local supporter knows when the rallies and sorties will happen. If the aspirant is an administration candidate, he must put up a stage, complete with a sound system. He must also provide the music because people won’t attend a rally without entertainment, complete with dancers, plus a toastmaster to handle the microphone. Santa Banana, above all, the local supporter must have a sure audience, usually a so-called “hakot crowd”, ferried by jeepneys or buses because people cannot just walk to attend a rally, especially when they are in the barrios. My gulay, normally the people are also given breakfast and lunch.
All these mean money which a supporter must spend for his candidate. It is for this reason why administration candidates have an advantage over independent candidates or opposition candidates. Do you know how much a rally would cost? I’d say about P2 million to P5 million, depending on the capacity of the local supporter to spend. The usual practice is for the candidate to advance the expenses.
It’s for this reason why I say an administration candidate has an advantage because the local supporter, usually a mayor, already has the funds to spend, while an opposition candidate or an independent candidate cannot but have to depend on his own sources. The next question is, how will the local supporter get back his support? This is already pre-arranged with a supporter of the candidate already having given his supporter the money to spend.
The bottomline is money. A candidate who has no money to spread around before election day will eventually lose. He or she may be leading in poll surveys, but without money, he or she will lose. It is for this reason why I know that in the final analysis it’s always money that talks in an election like the Philippines.
With all poll surveys showing a commanding lead of Bongbong Marcos and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio over all presidential and vice-presidential aspirants comes the big question: How authentic are all the surveys? Rather, the question comes up, will these poll surveys be maintained on Election Day, May 9, 2022?
First of all, we must distinguish commissioned from non- commissioned or paid-for poll surveys that are likely to be biased in favor of the one paying for it.
It is also the practice of businesses to commission poll surveys to find out how a product would be accepted by the public. Insofar as political poll surveys are concerned, I rely on two surveys – the Pulse Asia and the Social Weather Stations poll surveys, which have been tested as authentic.
I cannot go on to explain the methodology of poll surveyors use since I am no statistician, but, I know that Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations surveys are authentic and credible. For one thing, poll surveys like Pulse Asia And SWS would not be hired if they are not authentic and credible, my gulay !
My gulay, insofar as the commanding lead of the Bongbong-Sara tandem is concerned, the Pulse Asia and SWS poll surveys, as far as I am concerned, are the most credible .
In any case, if almost all poll surveys show Bongbong Marcos leading the second placerVice President Leni Robredo by over 30 percent, third, Mayor Isko Moreno, Senator Manny Pacquio in fourth place and Senator Ping Lacson coming in as fifth, if those behind Bongbong and Sara have their minds in the right place, they should start asking themselves at this point in time – will we make it?
The strategists of Robredo, Moreno, Pacquiao and Lacson should now be asking, can my candidate still make it?
First of all, a commanding lead of Marcos by over 30 percent over all those surveys could translate to more or less 30 million voters.
I say that Bongbong can be the next President. So will Sara be the next VP, who leads others by at least 20 percent.
The other question about poll surveys is, can BBM’s lead in all poll surveys affect the results of the voting on Election Day ?
The answer to this question is both yes and no. Yes, it affects voters who still have to make up their minds. There is a so-called “bandwagon mentality” that will prevail as shown in past elections. No, to those who have already made up their minds whom to vote for.
Poll surveys also show how regions all over the country will vote. Analyzing the findings of Pulse Asia about where Bongbong is getting his votes from, it will show that the “Marcos” name still rings a bell among Filipinos. Take for instance why the Pulse Asia surveys showed that Bongbong leads all the aspirants in the C, D and E categories of votes, or the “masa”, which shows that among the “masa,” the name “Marcos” still rings a bell among people in Mindanao, even among the Muslims. Bongbong’s votes from Metro Manila and the National Capital Region also show that voters categorized as A, B, and C also go for Marcos and Sara.
Thus, when Senator Ping Lacson claimed that there is no “Solid North” insofar as voting is concerned, I find that insulting to the Ilocanos and Ilocano-speaking people in Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and even in Zambales. Lacson should realize that.
Talking about the Solid North, it is also said that the people like the Visayans and Mindanaoans will go for a Cebuano or Cebuano-speaking candidate, of which Inday Sara is, since Cebuano is the most .popular dialect spoken by people from the Visayans and Mindanao. Like when the Osmenas were running for national offices, the Visayans voted for them.
Thus when it is said that Bongbong has the “Solid North” and Sara has the “Solid South”, as they say in the vernacular, “Tapos na ang boksing.” Game over!