Everyone was caught by surprise at the Social Weather Stations survey that showed Rodrigo Roa Duterte of Mindanao and the “Bisdak” nation was leading the pack of presidential candidates—as of Nov. 26 to 28, that is.
Not just leading, but leading widely. His 38-percent nationwide rating was followed by Vice President Jejomar Binay’s and Senator Grace Poe’s at a 21-percent even-steven rating. In fine, if elections were held on the last days of November, Duterte would have won with a margin of anywhere from seven to nine million votes over either of the two. That’s a decisive margin by any standard.
Look at it another way: If you add up Binay’s and Poe’s numbers, the sum is 42, which is statistically tied to Duterte’s 38. And Mar has to do a lot more lying atop an ice block, or making “cute” chest-bumps with James Yap and Billy Crawford, and arrange interviews with Daniel Padilla and Boy Abunda, to pedal his 15 points to Digong’s 38. Mar must recall what his professor in Price Theory taught him about the “Red Queen” effect—run and run, huff and puff, and yet you see yourself in the same place from whence you started.
Skeptics and sour-graping Monday morning quarterbacks are now questioning the provenance of the SWS-conducted survey. Who commissioned it? The same guys who throw that inane question know that reliable pollsters like SWS and Pulse Asia would not “sell” their reputation for a few million bucks.
These pollsters have been around for decades, and know that their credibility and staying power depends on the integrity of their sampling methods and the science by which they design their research. Who commissioned which survey is of absolutely no moment, except as a fleeting propaganda tool mouthed by the un-knowing to try to hoodwink the un-lettered.
How did the candidates react to previous surveys where SWS or Pulse trumpeted their chances? Poe would “thank the people for their trust.” So did Binay last year, until the “dam” of “mala-Kew gardens” and the parking building broke. And Mar Roxas’ handlers would ululate in joy when his numbers doubled, even if they were still in single-digit territory. As for the loquacious Senator Trillanes, why, he has his own survey outfit, and he trots these out to whoever would listen. Now he says Duterte’s numbers are all about a communications plan.
Anybody who runs a presidential campaign knows the importance of having regularly conducted surveys. And surveys done to measure the impact of certain events in a campaign, to be released to the public if the results are positive, and kept in the war room “for a few eyes only” if they do not measure up to desired levels.
A November 11-12 NCR “dipstick” done by Pulse Asia, which was reported some three weeks ago, had Duterte already leading the pack. His numbers in Mindanao had been on a slight downtrend, clearly brought about by the confusion on whether he would or would not run. After the Oct. 16 no-show at the Comelec, many Mindanaoans may have felt it was over for their fellow, and began shifting to other candidates, notably, Poe and Roxas.
But the NCR numbers showed that Duterte’s message and his persona had gained traction and acceptance. Even the September survey figures of Pulse Asia also showed that he had increased considerably, from 14 points in June to 21 points in September. When he topped NCR last Nov. 11-12 at 31 points, it must have dawned upon his handlers that they had to measure the “sleepers,” or those who were emotionally attached to the mayor and would actually vote for him, IF he was a candidate.
Which is why that SWS survey of Nov. 26 to 28 made sense. The mayor declared his candidacy was “on the table” the night of Nov. 21. He openly declared he was running the following day. And on Nov. 27, after days of being hounded by media wherever he went, and after a brief Hong Kong planning session with his vice presidential team-mate Alan Peter Cayetano, he withdrew his CoC for mayor of Davao, and Atty. Salvador Medialdea filed his CoC and PDP-Laban Cona at the Comelec office in Intramuros.
The declaratory events and the filing coincided with SWS’ field research.
What was surprising was the big, big bump.
Almost five out of 10 Metro Manilans would vote for him during that time frame. Five of 10 in Mindanao. Four of 10 in Visayas, and 2.6 in 10 out of the rest of Luzon.
Clearly, there was a multitude of “sleepers,” those who believe in his persona, as well as connect to his message.
Should the competition have been surprised, such that now, even palace spokespersons have to publicly pooh-pooh the results?
Is Grace Poe right when she attributes her creeping survey downtrend to the disqualification cases? Or has temporary showbiz luster been losing its sheen as more people get to know her? She does not have sleepers, only “parkers”, or those who temporarily parked in her political yard lot, because they did not “like” either Binay or Mar.
The song in her mind ought to be something only guys like Erap and Jojo can still warble, “It was fascination…”
But will Duterte’s “sleepers” remain with him? What could be the “fall-out” of the “P…i” incident referencing the papal visit?
More quantitative research needs to be done by both the Duterte camp and his competition. And qualitative research as well.
What Duterte’s stunning numbers indicate is that so far it is against his message that all others will be compared. The mayor of Davao has caught the voters’ imagination, and to a great extent, beyond that, their brand loyalty.
The competition will do either or both of two things: tarnish Duterte, and try improving their own image.
Thus far, it’s been the first tactic—negative propaganda. Note that Amnesty International “bleeding hearts” fired their oft-blasted cannonballs the day after the public release of the SWS survey. Yet up to now, the “istambay” and the “barbero” in the warrens of the poor and lower middle class ask: “e ang tagal-tagal na niyong sinasabi ‘yan, wala naman kayong kasong isinasampa. Puro kayo daldal, puro kaya hinala, wala naman kayong pruweba.”
The other tactic is more difficult. How can the competition “improve,” even re-invent their image? That is a very difficult thing to do Ask Serge Osmeña.
Which means Digong has to brace himself for more negative propaganda aimed at his person, from the supporters, paid or real, who his competitors are lining up against him. Where before they did not mind this “flash-in-the-pan” candidate from down South, now they are shocked and awed.