spot_img
28.6 C
Philippines
Friday, March 29, 2024

The outliers

- Advertisement -

Clearly, both Mar Roxas and Jojo Binay would want to frame the 2016 electoral fight as a “mano a mano,” a one-on-one contest.

Mar’s speeches as well as advertorials speak of continuing “daang matuwid” against those who want “kurakot” to return and “daang baluktot” to triumph.  Even the instant billboards that have sprung in the countryside, about MARangal…MARapat, echo this, and on a sea of yellow at that, the same color he eschewed when he was running as PNoy’s vice-presidential candidate in 2010, favoring his Ateneo blue.  Correction, “royal” blue,  como un verdadero hijo de buena familia, de los ilustrados de alta sociedad.  He now wants to show the public the “real” Mar, a re-invention of public persona, but Serge Osmena doesn’t believe it will sell.  And Manong Ernie Maceda thinks his best bet is to get Kris Aquino to be his running mate by October 16.

Binay wants to frame the fight as a class war, the many poor versus the few who are rich.  The landless versus the landed.  The “hijos de la hacienda contra los hijos de pesantes”.  The “manhid” versus the “wa-pansin”.  And as a sideshow, the “daang maayos” versus the “daang palpak”.  Binay loves to talk about his poor origins, as an orphan who had to tend to a lower middle-class uncle’s backyard piggery in order to fend for his studies.  That he graduated into a multi-billion “air-conditioned” piggery owner (a rather exaggerated accusation coming from his detractors) ensconced in a country estate with a version of the Kew Gardens beside it, all of which he denies, is omitted in his stories of how he triumphed over poverty.  Meanwhile, he goes to every town, as far east as San Quintin and as far west as Anda, pumping flesh, while looking so distant, so disturbed, hoping that everyone who sees him in the flesh will vote for him. 

And for good reason do they want the contest all to themselves.  The contrasts are striking; the choices, at least in their minds and their handlers, quite clear-cut.

- Advertisement -

Unfortunately for them, hindi sila nag-iisa.  There are “outliers”, waiting in the wings.  These outliers have yet to formally declare their intentions, leaving some opening to “change their mind.”  That of course is balderdash.  They only wait for the right time, weigh the odds, and in the case of the Grace of many surprises, because the ghosts (such as Rizalito David?) are wandering her earth.  In the case of Duterte of Davao, the seeming indecision is a play.

Mar and the Liberals boast of a strong machinery, plus the presidential endorsement.  Binay and his gaggle of supporters from all stripes and colors think they have commitments forged when his survey ratings were stratospheric, plus a “firm” hold on the lower D and E income levels, the sector referred to as the “masa.”

But is the Liberal machinery, nay, the “Daang Matuwid” coalition, really that strong?  If it were, then Mar and Frank and even PNoy would not need to woo Grace so publicly, and be humiliated by her hemming and hawing.  How come there’s no long line to be Mar’s VP?  Even Vilma and Leni are uninterested.

And Veep Jojo?  Last I heard the retinue of politician hangers-on wherever he engages his “masa” in boodle fights has thinned down to a few—our fellow columnist Danny Suarez, an occasional Lito Atienza, and newly-minted senatoriables Alma Moreno and Princess Jacel Kiram.  Who would Jojo’s VP eventually be?  Grace has declined, and so has Digong.  Vilma as well, why, even President-Mayor Erap.  Now he publicly woos Bongbong Marcos, and lately, Senadora Miriam as well.  Compare this situation to last year, when everybody and his mother would line up at the Coconut Palace for a photo-op.

It’s pretty obvious the electorate is asking, “Are there no other choices?”  Hence, the outliers.

But Grace seems for now bogged down with two problems: one, there seems to be quite a bit of resistance to the lady’s choice of Chiz as political partner; and two, her citizenship and residency qualifications are now under scrutiny.  As the filing of candidacy nears, these seeming uncertainties will bear down on her final decision.

I heard that Sonny Trillanes, the man who would be Numero Dos no matter what, has pledged to support the amazing Grace.  Nothing amazing about that—he cannot pair with Binay, and Mar prefers female company.  If not Grace, then Vilma or Leni, not macho Sonny.

As for Duterte, the guy is playing it cool and coy, while watching in amusement how the declared protagonists lunge at each other’s throat.  Occasionally, he spews statements that can only be characterized as “nanghahamit” in Tagalog, or “nang-aasar” in Metro Manila patois.  Clearly, this “pilyong Bisaya” is enjoying himself.  Watch him when he eventually joins the fray.  If Grace is amazing, this guy will amaze the electorate more.  He has a cabinet-full of true stories to tell, narratives to match the movie tales of FPJ that are the stock-in-trade of the senadora.

Are there any more outliers?

Bongbong Marcos is testing the waters.  Miriam has expressed some interest.  Ping Lacson is still hoping for the ratings game come September to give him a “bump”.  And so is Alan Cayetano, who has recently changed his tune about going for Numero Dos, where six months before, he eschewed plans of a slide.

But lurking in the shadows is Erap himself, who still longs to recover the throne that was stolen from him in 2001.  Already he has confessed to confidantes about that aching in his heart, that yearning to get back.  Privately he waxes about an Erap-Grace tandem, if only the lady would lower her sights from the top of Mount Olympus.  If he does, where goes Binay’s 20 percent?

Don’t count these outliers out.  There’s still some 70 days from now until Comelec receives the certificates of candidacy, and after the release of the Pulse Asia survey results right after the Chinese ghost month unravels, watch the feverish frenzy of backroom deals and party caucuses.  Those will be four weeks of suspense in Philippine political circus.  Like the drumbeats before a double trapeze.

And when the outliers finally lay down their cards, and there should be two more of them at the least, then the electorate will have more choices.  No longer will they be limited to the proclaimed heirs of “daang matuwid” who call the present competition “kampon ng kurakot”; or conversely, those who proclaim the daang matuwid as “palpak at manhid”.

About time the voters saw real debates on real issues—not between two, but among more.

- Advertisement -

LATEST NEWS

Popular Articles