"Will rational thinking get us out of this diplomatic mess, or will irrational, impulsive, personal whims prevail and seriously damage our national security interests?"
"Will rational thinking get us out of this diplomatic mess, or will irrational, impulsive, personal whims prevail and seriously damage our national security interests?"The cancelling of the US visa of Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a longtime ally and friend of President Rodrigo Duterte, has led to what presidential spokesman said are official instructions to Department of Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin to send the notice of termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement to the US government.
As I was about to sleep last Saturday night, I received a message sharing an online post from a leading national broadsheet quoting Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana stating that the order to notify US about scrapping VFA is “fake news” and that no official order from the President has been received yet.
Oh well, this confusion about the President and his spokesman’s pronouncements to media has become a very unprofessional and embarrassing pattern that media has rightly reported verbatim and unfiltered. His words, broadcast in all media and confirmed by Panelo, is an irrational pronouncement and now a foreign policy crisis that’s again sending all the wrong signals and harming the country’s global stature, credibility, and most of all, unnecessarily puts at risk our national security.
In the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing held last Thursday (Feb 6), Locsin accurately spelled out the far-reaching impact and an initial assessment on benefits and risks if the VFA is abrogated.
Locsin explained four big benefits that heavily affects areas of Philippine defense:
1) “The VFA ensures operability of other Philippines-US defense arrangements and modalities of cooperation.” These are strategic defense agreements such as: The Mutual Defense Treaty which the VFA directly enables, the Enhanced Cooperation Development Agreement, which is the essence of MDT commitments.
“There would essentially be no practical use for an EDCA in the absence of the VFA, which is the legal framework for the presence of US military personnel in military exercises and actual military responses under the MDT. Without them, the MDT is just a piece of paper.”
Let’s not forget the strong US support of our troops in the Battle of Marawi where the ISIS militants were neutralized.
2) “The VFA allows the US to provide a total-package approach on defense articles that would be compatible with equipment, assets, and systems that are already in place.”
The Armed Forces of the Philippines’ military equipment and systems are “largely patterned from and/or provided by the US.” Security assistance programs from the US totaled $554.55 million from 2016 to 2019 plus after sales maintenance packages. More support is being planned for aircraft, equipment, training and other AFP needs estimated to reach $200 million until 2021 plus access to foreign military financing of more than USD 45 million.
“Without the VFA, the US Departments of State and Defense will be hard put to get funds from the US Congress for FMF and other defense assistance programs to the Philippines.”
3) “The VFA promotes interoperability between the Philippines’ forces and law enforcement agencies and their US counterparts.” No VFA will hit some 319 national security capability enhancement activities for law enforcement and military already lined up for 2020.
4) “The VFA allows for the continued support for addressing non-traditional security threats.” The joint exercises, training and exchange visits with US forces have been instrumental in fighting “non-traditional” security threats such as terrorism, illegal narcotics, and cyberattacks. During times of disaster, the US has consistently helped in disaster response and rescue. With the number of natural calamities that hit us yearly, this is certainly a big perk.
Locsin further enumerated six (6) other areas that will be put to risk. These are (with my side comments):
1) “The Philippines’ international standing as viewed by other US allied countries is maintained.”—This will obviously be affected because our ability to deliver on military agreements will be in question.
2) “Recent actions by the US have shown its renewed commitment to its defense obligations to the Philippines.” —The commitment on military response is clear and no longer ambiguous and in writing as declared by US Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper in their 2019 Manila visit. “An armed attack on the armed forces public vessels or aircraft of the Republic of the Philippines in the Pacific, including the South China Sea, would trigger, the mutual defense obligations of the United States under Article 4 of the Mutual Defense Treaty.”
This strong deterrent against any foreign attack will most likely be weakened.
3) “The existing goodwill and friendly relations between the Philippines and the US may be compromised.”—Clearly, the way the President has been barking, he doesn’t seem to care about this.
4) “Philippine-US robust economic relations may be affected.”—Who wants to do business with a party you can’t trust and is perceived to be unstable?
5) “The healthy state of our bilateral trade investments in tourism may be imperiled.”—Millions of jobs will be affected when employment generating investments from the country’s fifth largest investor (P12 billion in 2018) and hitting our labor-intensive tourist industry because of a likely drop of US tourist arrivals (1 million in 2018). The US is also the number one source of official development assistance (ODA) totaling $886.47 in 2018.
6) “US assistance facilitated by VFA may dry up.”—This is again very substantial ($904.93 million from 2016-2019) funding programs such as “scholarships and seminars, and projects on education, health, environment, agriculture, fisheries, trade, labor, and governance.”
Locsin has admitted that there was no consultation with him or even Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana before the sudden order to terminate the VFA was announced. Déjà vu.
I totally agree with his statement that, “Terminating the VFA will negatively impact the Philippines’ defense and security arrangements, as well as the overall bilateral relations of the Philippines with the US and perhaps even at the sub-regional and multilateral level. Our contribution to regional defense is anchored on our military alliance with the world’s last superpower.”
A Senate Resolution (312) has also been filed by Senate President Vicente Sotto III, Senate Minority Leader Franklin Drilon and Senate Committee on National Defense and Security Panfilo Lacson calling for, “A careful deliberation of these matters must be taken into account before finally arriving at a decision which will ultimately affect not only the security and economy of the Philippines but also that of our neighboring countries in the Asia Pacific region.”
Maybe some of the President’s close whisperers should remind him that all national surveys show that Filipinos gave the United States the highest trust rating compared to his Chinese and Russian preference. It will be interesting how this will play out in the next few weeks. Will rational thinking get us out of this diplomatic mess, or will irrational, impulsive, personal whims prevail and seriously damage our national security interests?