"It can only grow as the future looms ahead."
"It can only grow as the future looms ahead."
Despite the Duterte administration’s professed pivot to Beijing, there remains a “special relationship” between Manila and Washington, one built on decades of cooperation following the granting of Philippine independence in 1946. Think tank Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute (ADRi) recently held a roundtable discussion on what’s next for this relationship, in particular the role of Washington in strengthening diplomatic, economic, and security cooperation in the context of Southeast Asia and the Philippines.
This includes, for starters, clarifying the uncertainty that surrounds US-Philippine relations a year after US President Donald Trump sketched his Free and Open Indo-Pacific policy at the 2017 APEC CEO Summit and at a time when Chinese capital is flooding the region, not least its multi-billion dollar investments into the Duterte administration’s vaunted Build Build Build infrastructure agenda, said Dr. Patrick Cronin, Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Center for a New American Security.
“Indeed, the common refrain in Manila is that while the United States remains a good friend, China will always be the Philippines’ watchful, at times menacing, northern neighbor,” Cronin said.
At the center of Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy, Cronin said, is the need for the US to “more conscientiously strike a balance between providing assurances of the durability of US commitment to the region and encouraging Philippine autonomy, particularly amidst Chinese incursions.”
Just a few weeks ago, the US Navy said the Luyang, a Chinese warship, forced the American destroyer USS Decatur to change course while sailing past a couple of reefs in the heavily disputed Spratly Islands. It is only one of many encounters in the sea lane that had, over the years, become the site of confrontation between China and a host of other nations with competing claims on it, including the Philippines and the US, which routinely conducts so-called freedom of navigation tours in the area, to Beijing’s frustration.
“The United States will also need to grapple with how best to promote its positive agenda for a rules-based order in a way that not only safeguards its own interests but also directly appeals to the aspiring middle classes of the Philippines and beyond,” said Cronin.
This is the context, he added, of the Indo-Pacific framework, which at its core highlights the shift in the global economic center of gravity and other dramatic changes that are taking place both in the Philippines and across Southeast Asia. Even so, such changes would not overturn “elements of continuity in policy” as far as Washington and Manila are concerned.
“Across the diplomatic, economic, and security domains, the American commitment to the rule of law, freedom of navigation, sustainable economic development, and good governance both in the Philippines and the region write large remains stronger than ever.”
This includes taking advantage of already existing institutions and mechanisms, such as the ten-nation regional bloc Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Even so, while ASEAN is most powerful when it speaks with a unified voice, “ad hoc cooperation below the ASEAN level” might be more functional and nimble in some cases, Cronin said.
“The Philippines’ trilateral air and maritime patrols with Indonesia and Malaysia in the Sulu and Celebes Seas offer a case in point. Moving forward, the United States should not only support ASEAN cohesion but also smaller, effective coalitions of the willing to showcase American and regional commitment to a rules-based order.”
In terms of security, Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy is similarly built on principled and peaceful resolution of disputes, especially in the context of pushing back against the “assertiveness” of major powers. By far the most glaring example of such is the unabated militarization of artificial island features in the Spratly Islands, despite widespread protests and condemnation.
“Building naval, air, and coast guard and law enforcement capabilities of littoral nations around the Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and Southwest Pacific lies at the heart of the United States’ security commitment to the region,” Cronin said.
This strategy is part and parcel of the Obama administration’s approach to the region in the form of building a principled and inclusive network, which Trump, for his part, is keen on intensifying.
“This entails pursuing more group sails and closer joint training and exercises, as exemplified by the increase in the number of joint events that General Galvez and Admiral Davidson have proposed for 2019,” Cronin said.
It’s important for the United States to “cast its objectives, not in the divisive terms of geopolitical division, but rather, as a bulwark against the more elemental challenges that stem terrorism, political violence, illegal trafficking, natural disasters, and other humanitarian crises,” he added.
As for the economy, Cronin suggests that the same strategy should be emphasized and can be sustainable rather than predatory, in which US private sector investment and stronger institutional frameworks will remain key. Trump last year pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal which had excluded the Philippines due reportedly to the country’s high tariffs and other perennial trade barriers.
“Now that talks are underway for the US-Philippine Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, the United States must work expeditiously at forging a bilateral Free Trade Agreement as soon as possible,” he said.
To shield the new FTA from “future political debates,” Cronin believes that the new deal must be sustainable and add substantial economic and strategic value, stimulating business and creating jobs that can contribute to helping the 25 percent of Filipinos who live in poverty and the 10 percent who teeter close to it.
“And a bilateral FTA should also raise labor and environmental standards,” he added.
All in all, all these constitute the newest chapter in a century of “shared experience” for the US and the Philippines. Cronin said regardless of the political changes in Washington and the occasionally thorny history, “common values and shared interests” between the two countries will continue to forge a closer link between the two countries, a “special relationship” that can only grow as the future looms ahead.