The series of events last week happened fast. On May 23, government troops reportedly raided a house in Marawi City to arrest Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon; forces protecting Hapilon fought back and called on reinforcement from their ally, the Maute Group, leading to hours-long gun fight. Some parts of the city, including a school and a hospital, allegedly came in control of the rebel groups.
Informed of the events, President Rodrigo Duterte cut short his trip to Russia and placed the entire island of Mindanao under martial law for 60 days. The declaration understandably alarmed many, reminded of a dark chapter of Philippine history. Others aver that it was a necessary precaution to contain what some fear was the increasing influence of radical Islam in the Philippines and even Southeast Asia.
To some experts, the incident in Marawi is far from unexpected to a certain extent. In a paper for independent think tank Stratbase ADR Institute, former defense analyst Mark Davis Pablo noted the persistence of splinter groups in Mindanao, like the notorious Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, that continue to reject any peaceful dialogue with Manila. Particularly alarming, he said, is Hapilon pledging allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The consolidation of these terror groups into a single force, some warn, may serve as the prelude to the declaration of an ISIS wilayat in the region.
For his part, Duterte’s much publicized pivot to Mindanao strategy promised a decisive and long overdue solution to the decades-long Mindanao problem. His approach was two-pronged: Uphold the existing peace processes in preparation for the establishment of a new autonomous Bangsamoro region and escalate the government’s war against the Islamist terrorists, in particular the Abu Sayyaf Group.
To some, this plan still does little to address the root cause of the insurgency: Underdevelopment. Pablo wrote: “As long as Mindanao remains a peripheral region devoid of employment-generating and high-value-added industries and loosely integrated into the dynamic global economy, endemic poverty and economic underdevelopment will persist in the region… the insurgency problem will remain and merely undergo a series of revivals and permutations.”
As such, the paper noted, development should constitute the bulk of any long-term reform agenda for a historically neglected region like Mindanao. To ensure inclusive growth for all prospective federal states, the Manila-based central government must strengthen the administrative capacity of its envisioned decentralized state agencies, put in place new systems of transparency and accountability, and curb corruption and financial mismanagement by provincial bureaucratic elites. These should go hand-in-hand with boosting the local economy, from agriculture to industry, and integrating the region into the greater national economy.
Addressing these socioeconomic underpinnings of insurgency in Mindanao, in particular the structural inequality embedded in the Philippines as a nation-state vis-à-vis the broader capitalist world-system, thus represents a new—nonmilitary—challenge for Duterte and government policymakers.
This is the backdrop of the latest incarnation of martial law. Necessary or not, it is critical to scrutinize the safeguards put in place in the 1987 Constitution, crafted with the experience of Marcos’ Martial Law fresh in people’s consciousness. Under Article VII, Section 18, the president may place the country or any part of it under martial law for a period not exceeding 60 days, calling out the armed forces to prevent or suppress lawless violence, invasion, or rebellion. Within 48 hours, he is required to submit a report in person or in writing to the Congress, which, voting jointly, by a majority vote, may revoke the proclamation. The Supreme Court may also review the proclamation; the declaration also does not suspend the operation of the Constitution nor supplant the functioning of the civil courts or legislative assemblies.
This time, Congress is extending its plenary session days until Friday this week to review the martial law declaration, deviating from the normal Monday to Wednesday schedule.
The government may also want to take advantage of the declaration to neutralize all security threats in the region, from the Muslim extremists to the communist New People’s Army. All in all, Duterte faces an even great challenge a year into his term. Success means a surge in political capital across key sectors, and failure may weaken his already controversy-laden presidency.
The President’s political forces from the Cabinet to the online supporters have already towed the communications line but they will have little influence in the way the country’s international economic stakeholders will perceive the Mindanao martial law as a serious disruption of stability.