"Is this another Otso Diretso in the making?'
My prayers and condolences go out first to Henry “Big Boy” Sy Jr. on the untimely death of his daughter Jan Catherine. I feel for him in a way that only any father of a daughter can understand.
In the midst of his grief, I was impressed by the depth of his Christian acceptance of God’s will. In his latest post, he even wondered if his overwhelming love for his family might not be just another form of idolatry, because it distracts him from what ought to be his preeminent relationship with his Creator. That is a brutally profound insight indeed.
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The latest news about the virus is the worrisome surge of new infections in our country. Much is being made of a graph from the UK’s Financial Times that shows the seven-day rolling average of new cases in the Philippines steeply rising this month. But what else does this graph show?
The Philippine average started dropping sharply in mid-September, hitting its lowest point of only 1,000 new cases in early January.
Other ASEAN countries have also shown peaks: Indonesia and Thailand at start of February; Myanmar twice, in early October and late November. In other words, our country is simply climbing into its own peak a few months after these others.
Duterte’s critics are happily jumping all over him because of the surge. And yet he was the same President when the average was dropping as when it is today climbing. This inclines me to believe the alternative explanation from OCTA’s Dr. Guido David:
That well over half of the new infections this month are linked to the much more infectious new virus variants—from the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and who knows where else. Fortunately for Duterte, he hasn’t visited these countries lately, or he’d be blamed for importing those new viruses himself.
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The President’s critics have now set up a coalition that they’ve cleverly branded “1Sambayan”, a play on the words “samba” and “bayan.” It’s a joint venture between the obsequiously pious Liberal Party and the atheists in Bayan Muna, brokered by assorted retreads from the PNoy yellow camp.
Now I’m all for a healthy opposition, one that can put real meat into our democracy by giving voters a real choice. And it’s Duterte himself who’s lately been complaining about too much corruption, too much bureaucracy, not enough action—all of these being issues that can be raised by the opposition.
The problem is that I’m hearing only the same pap that drove the unlamented Otso Diretso into oblivion in 2019. I sat down to watch the new coalition’s online miting de avance last Sunday, only to leave midway after losing patience with the weepy poetry reading and protest singing that may drive the middle class to tears but will just leave the practical-minded “D” and “E” classes unmoved.
By the time campaign season starts in October, there will have been enough people vaccinated for the administration to chalk it up as another Duterte achievement. The country also enjoys enough fiscal reserves and liquidity for the economy to muddle through one lockdown after another, never quite falling apart badly enough for Duterte’s fans to abandon him.
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This leaves the opposition with three challenges to overcome:
One, equity of the incumbent. This means not only the traditional war chest and patronage enjoyed by any incumbent, but also the pervasive popularity enjoyed by this President that still confounds so many to this day.
Two, a breakthrough message. Despite the incumbent’s equity lent to Mar Roxas in 2016, he was brought down by Duterte’s message that resonated with the masses but crossed nobody else’s mind: Stopping drugs and crime. In 2022, the breakthrough message might well be efficiency in leadership—but not cursing out “Du*ae.”
Three, a disruptive personality. That made Duterte so different from everyone else in the 2016 field. Unfortunately for the opposition, this has now become part of incumbent’s equity, i.e. our people are likely to be looking for the same from whoever wants to replace him. The Philippines may be no exception to what seems to be a growing preference across the world for heavy-handed leadership and simple solutions.
We can only wish 1Sambayan a better fate than the quixotic quest of Otso Diretso last time. But I still wouldn’t put my money on them.
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My consulting group CenSEI will be holding its monthly webinar for March on: “The Construction Sector: Efficient Technology and Improved Worker and Site Safety,” scheduled for Monday, March 29, from 2-5 PM.
Speakers will be led from the public sector by Engr. Catalina Cabral, DPWH Undersecretary for Plans and Programs and PPP; and from the private sector by Engr. Sid Consunji, chairman of developer DMCI Holdings, and Engr. Ping Aliling, CEO of construction manager Jose Aliling & Associates.
Readers can write me at [email protected].