"The more we wave our fists against the Chinese—even threatening to haul them into court—while neglecting to get our military act together, the less they will respect us."
"The more we wave our fists against the Chinese—even threatening to haul them into court—while neglecting to get our military act together, the less they will respect us."Last week’s second summit in Beijing of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) saw the Chinese continue to aggressively push their multi-billion dollar global infrastructure initiative. At the same time, it also provided a forum for China’s leadership to shed more light on their plans and promises, upon which the rest of the region must depend for a lot of guidance about the future.
From President Xi’s keynote speech, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post abstracted the following six important promises made by China:
1. Keep its currency stable within a reasonable range and refrain from any “beggar thy neighbor” devaluation—This has long been a sore point with the US because such devaluation makes Chinese exports artificially cheaper while discouraging imports that become more expensive at local prices.
2. Import more foreign agricultural products and services for more balanced trade—his is related to the first point and will be music to the ears of countries as different as ours and the United States, both of us nonetheless being substantial agricultural exporters.
3. Closer cooperation with the international community over intellectual property rights—Another sore point with the US and other technologically advanced nations. Xi promised to end forced technology transfers, protect trademarks and trade secrets, and combat IP theft.
4. Stronger commitment to an open economy, i.e. more imports—The landmark event will be the country’s second import expo, in Shanghai in November. Xi promised to further cut tariffs and non-tariff barriers, expand market access, slash negative lists, and strengthen regulatory support for foreign investments and supply-side structural reforms.
5. Belt and Road isn’t only for China—Xi promised that this initiative would enhance multilateralism through better connectivity and practical cooperation among participant countries.
6. Greener growth—At least one American state, California, is willing to take the Chinese at their word despite US government skepticism. The state’s lieutenant governor attended the forum “to consider how BRI can drive positive action on climate change.”
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Will the Chinese keep their word? My own view is that the promises to avoid currency devaluation and pay more attention to intellectual property rights will be the most difficult for them to keep. These strike too closely at their time-tested strategies of accumulating export revenues for growth while moving both exports and growth farther up the technology value-chain.
The other four promises will be easier to keep. Greater imports especially of agricultural products will concede the hardness of binding constraints like finite arable land and a huge and growing population to feed. Multilateralism and greenness are buzzwords mainly intended for a Western audience—icing on the cake of commercial and political power projection that BRI is really all about.
But there’s enough room for self-interest by other parties. Facing the prospect of Brexit, the finance minister of a potentially diminished Britain offered BRI his country’s assistance on project financing. The United Nations and the European Union (spoken for by Germany) are also enthusiastic.
Others are less so. One notable no-show was the World Bank’s new American president, who was critical of BRI during his previous posting as a US Treasury undersecretary. No senior US officials attended, while Japan only sent a political party leader. China’s old rival India stayed away because BRI includes construction in the disputed region of Kashmir.
The bigger context comes from growing worries about a Chinese “debt trap” being hatched for unsuspecting emerging markets. Already, deals have been cancelled or scaled down in Malaysia, Sierra Leone, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. The bottom line: BRI may well be a great idea, but there’s just too many other adverse stories about China out there to close the sale at this point.
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One of those stories, we all know, concerns the inexorable incursions by the Chinese into disputed maritime territories. At his meeting in Beijing with the Chinese prime minister, President Duterte announced his readiness to pursue “high quality and good impact” BRI projects. But significantly, he sent the media out of the room after his opening remarks. We can only guess what incendiary topics were brought up next.
Nonetheless, Duterte was able to sign agreements on at least 19 new deals totaling over $12-B on the sidelines of the forum. These deals are nothing to sneeze at, including:
• $4-B construction projects for the LRT, housing, and roads in northern Luzon, creating 4,000 jobs
• Four energy deals totaling $4.3-B, total 7,500 jobs
• $500-M project to build nationwide WiFi connectivity, 1,000 jobs
• Six development deals totaling nearly $2-B between the Cagayan Economic Zone Authority (CEZA) and various Chinese partners
• $1.5-B framework agreement with the Pampanga provincial government to develop the Yatai industrial park, 10,000 jobs
• $300-M agreement with the Subic Bay authority to develop Grande and Chiquita islands, 1,000 jobs
These are the future projects against which we should balance our justifiable anger over issues like giant clams, harassment of our fishermen, artificial island-building, and the often uncouth behavior of imported Chinese workers.
Perhaps the best advice comes from our ambassador to China, the Hon. Chito Sta. Romana: “We combine diplomacy with deterrence. And that’s why you still have to build your capability in terms of deterrence…Trust but verify.”
So how does our deterrent ability look like now? The AFP’s modernization has lagged behind. The PNP is hounded by concerns expressed by Duterte himself about corruption issues. And a civilian militia is non-existent because we dropped ROTC years ago and the Left continues to block its revival.
The more we wave our fists against the Chinese—even threatening to haul them into court—while neglecting to get our military act together, the less they will respect us. So for now, as Ambassador Chito has advised, let’s run after those business deals, keep talking to the Chinese, while quietly improving our war footing.
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In today’s Gospel (John 3: 7-15), Jesus talks about the need to be “born of water and Spirit” if one is to enter the Kingdom of God. He makes it clear that this rebirth can only be accomplished through belief in Him. And why is this so? Because, as explained in the following and well-loved verse 16, “For God so loved the world that He gave his only son…”
This “dying to oneself” expected from us—no less than from Jesus—compels a wholesale reform in behavior as well as outlook. In the first reading (Acts 4: 32-37), Luke describes how the Christian community in Jerusalem adopted the practice of common ownership of all property.
This communalism may seem to confound the value of private property, a principle that shares pride of place with the Christian roots of Western civilization. But it also highlights the excessive generosity—to God and to each other—that’s expected from us.
Readers can write me at gbolivar1952@yahoo.com.