"What most of the President’s critics seem to ignore is his scholarship in Machiavellian tactics."
The candidates for president in May 2022 remain floating as the polarization or realignment of political forces is still in progress. Bitter rivalries, dissension, and procrastination have rocked the ranks of both the administration and opposition quarters.
Indeed the presidential race has become so hotly-contested, imponderable and convoluted that it is now a jigsaw puzzle and a guessing game.
President Rodrigo Duterte is having difficulty in uniting the various parties identified or allied with his administration. His own party, PDP-Laban, is split wide open with Senator Manny Pacquiao already taking potshots at the President over corruption issues. Other leaders close and loyal to the President want him to run for vice president; political analysts consider this demeaning and constitutionally defective.
The President is in a quandary on whom to endorse for president from among a number of probable candidates which include his daughter Sarah Duterte, Senator Bong Go, Senator Dick Gordon, former Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano, Senator Manny Pacquiao, former Senator Bongbong Marcos, and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso.
The President, on a number of occasions, has advised his daughter not to aspire for the presidency. But some of his closest political allies want Sarah to succeed her father. Others even want a Sarah Duterte-Rodrigo Duterte ticket even if it appears too brazen, too presumptuous and too audacious a move to hang on to power. Bong Go has signified intentions to run provided the president is his running mate. This is likewise seen as an unabashed ambition to remain in power.
What most of the President’s critics seem to ignore is his scholarship in Machiavellian tactics. The President is astute, wily and discerning. It would be foolish for the opposition to ignore the president’s political ascendancy and shrewdness.
Duterte is reluctant to endorse Sarah or Bong Go because he is not confident of their making it.
He knows that those who feel they have been victims of injustices, EJKs and abuses during his administration will not vote for his candidate. He doesn’t want to take chances as long as he can avoid it.
The president may endorse Bongbong Marcos in combination with Sarah or him. But he is also aware that there is still a strong anti-Marcos sentiment among the people who have experienced hardships during the martial law years. He is aware nonetheless that this negative sentiment has considerably ebbed. The election of Mrs. Imelda Marcos, Bongbong, and Imee to high positions indicate that the Marcos family has rejoined mainstream society and the Marcos regime is regaining some of its faded luster.
The saying that the sins of the father usually visit his children does not apply to the Marcoses or to the Aquino family.
But endorsing Bongbong could be a risky gamble, too. The opposition may raise the specter of two dictatorial regimes.
Senator Cayetano self-destructed when he dishonored an agreement which President Duterte himself had brokered.
President Duterte may opt to anoint Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso who will be less affected by anti-Duterte issues since he has not been associated with or close to the outgoing president.
Whomever President Duterte endorses for president will be a formidable and viable candidate. The resources of the administration will be of great help as it has always been in previous political exercises.
What will give the President an imponderable problem is if Sara decides to run for president even without his blessings or in defiance of his wishes.
The Davao City mayor is reportedly determined to enter the presidential race, confident of her victory because of her nation-wide political infrastructure, her media hype, and early lead in the poll surveys.
This unprecedented situation will be a litmus test of President Duterte’s sagacity and brilliance in politics. He may desist from running for vice president, withdraw his support for an opponent of Sara or stay on the sideline throughout the campaign. He may eventually endorse his daughter which would be an unprecedented somersault in Philippine politics.
What will be a clear advantage for the administration- or Duterte-supported candidate is the disarray and disunity in the opposition quarters.
Vice President Leni Robredo has failed to unite the various opposition groups or project herself as the most viable presidential candidate. If the 1Sambayan and critics of the president join forces with the Liberal Party, she or whoever will take her place will have good chances of being elected to the highest public office.
Many important political developments may still happen in the next few months or weeks which will crystallize the political equation and result in the election of the best president ever hopefully wished for by the electorate.
As in the previous presidential elections, five or more may eventually enter the race. The winner could again win by a mere plurality — clearly a minority president. This is the negative effect of the adoption of the multi-party system which has freed incumbent officials from being held accountable or responsible for their decisions and performance in office.
Let us hope that whoever will win the presidency on May 9, 2022 will have the blessings of Divine Providence.
Mr. Ernesto G. Banawis is a former general manager of the Philippine News Agency and an avid student of government, history and politics.