It was not a U-turn, after all, but obviously just a signal to the Chinese that we can go the other way if the situation warrants.
In the past two weeks, Filipinos were left wondering why after more than two years of appeasing China on the territorial dispute over a few islets and reefs on the South China Sea, Philippine government officials seemed to be making a turnaround in their posture toward the country’s giant neighbor. We thought that finally, the Philippine government was making sense and defending the country’s territorial integrity.
President Duterte himself started what looked then as a promising trend when he told China to lay off Pag-asa Island following reports from the military’s Western Command that hundreds of Chinese vessels, described as a flotilla of Chinese militia, are swarming the island, a village of Palawan’s Kalayaan town where hundreds of Filipinos live and where the military maintains a small base.
“I will not plead or beg, but I am just telling you to lay off the Pag-asa because I have soldiers there. If you touch it, that’s a different story. I will tell the soldiers ‘prepare for suicide mission’,” Duterte said in a speech.
The comment surprised many observers, coming from a leader who has done everything to please China and who has pursued a policy of appeasement with that nation from the early days of the presidential campaign.
The President’s “lay off Pag-asa” remark triggered a series of unfamiliar, but welcome statements from both Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. and Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo.
“The stand is that it is ours. And they took it. World’s highest court ruled that. Period,” Locsin tweeted. “Now the question is how to take it back. I personally have no fear of war. One attack on a public vessel triggers World War 3 with the USofA which is impervious to attack from Asia,” he added. Locsin also said that the US was and would remain the “only military ally” of the Philippines.
Later, Locsin insisted that the vessels swarming Pag-asa Island were Chinese poachers and militia, definitely not fishermen as China continues to claim.
And then came a series of warnings from Panelo, who said Philippine sovereignty is “non-negotiable” and that China should immediately respond to a protest that both he and Locsin said had been filed but would not be made public. Panelo then said in another stinging statement that China should respect the 2016 UN tribunal ruling. And more importantly, Panelo stressed that the Philippines owns the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
Panelo was not done. He later said China should stop harassing Filipino fishermen in waters within Philippine territory and warned that such actions could sour “currently friendly relations” between the two countries. He basically told the Chinese to stop disrupting peace in the South China Sea.
Reacting to reports on Tuesday that Chinese vessels were extracting giant clams in the Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal), Panelo such action violates the country’s sovereignty. He further said that the President had “effectively” invoked the UN tribunal ruling when he told China to lay off Pag-asa Island. He also hinted that Duterte may even bring up the UN ruling during his coming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The “salvo” of strong remarks vis-à-vis China was welcomed by many Filipinos, but questions remained as to what set off the sudden U-turn in the South China Sea issue.
The sudden strong reaction came after the reports on the swarming Chinese flotilla, and reached its crescendo when Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang maintained that the disputed Spratly Islands are within its territory as supported by “sufficient historical and legal basis.”
In March, US State Secretary Mike Pompeo met with the Philippine foreign secretary where he reassured the Philippine government that the US would come to the defense of the country if it came under attack in the South China Sea under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
Was it just the reassurance of US defense in case of military attack, or did something else occur during the meeting with Locsin that prompted the new tack on the South China Sea issue? Or was Duterte just appeasing Filipino voters in time for next month’s midterm elections, knowing that in surveys after surveys, the people have shown an overwhelming distrust for China and a continued trust for Americans?
Malacañang offered us an inkling of what really motivated those unusual remarks that seemed to signal a shift in the Duterte administration’s policy towards China. Just before he left for his fourth visit to China this week, the Palace said in a statement that the President would be seeking more deals with Beijing to boost his ambitious “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program.
Indeed, during the opening of the second Belt and Road Forum, President Duterte sat down with Chinese President Xi Jinping, telling his host that the occasion gave him “another opportunity to renew and reaffirm our valued relations based on mutual trust, respect and friendship, and must continue to grow strength and meaning in the coming years.”
In response, Xi said he was happy to see Philippines-China relations “getting better and better,” referring to Duterte as a “genuine friend” and “trusted partner.”
The two leaders later met in private, which was closed to the press. They were lovey dovey again, as if no incidents occurred in the disputed islands and no strong statements were made against each other.
Obviously, the strong remarks of just a few days ago were made to give the President leverage when he asks for more money for his various big-ticket projects and for more investments from Chinese businessmen.
The President is playing with fire in his dealings with the superpowers US and China. Namamangka sa dalawang ilog, as Filipinos would say. We know what happens to people who play with fire.
valabelgas@aol.com
Mr. Abelgas is a former managing editor of Manila Standard.