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Philippines
Thursday, March 28, 2024

Singing a different tune

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"Let us hope that our leaders act correctly and wisely."

 

Our problem as a country as we pursue our claims in the South China Sea is that there is no common consensus on how to deal with China, a country that has practically taken control over the entire body of water by constructing islands in strategic places in the SCS.

Nothing demonstrates this better than the way the Aquino government pursued our claims and the way the Duterte government is now pursuing it. The Aquino administration was aggressive and refused bilateral talks as a way of resolving contentious issues. The Duterte administration, on the other hand, agreed to bilateral talks and is now so friendly with the Chinese government that the President is now on his third trip to Beijing.

Those who agree with the Aquino government’s approach believe that not protesting what China is doing in the SCS might be construed as giving up our claims by default.

The Duterte administration naturally denies this, countering that the way to pursue our claims is to maintain a good and harmonious relationship with China. Provoking a superpower like China might just ignite a war that the country cannot win. In the words of the President himself, he refuses to send his soldiers to war simply to be slaughtered. The administration also believes that not stirring the hornets’ nest will result in less tension in the region, thereby allowing the expansion of trade between the two nations, not to mention the economic aid that the country can derive from China. This is aid that critics question because of lack of transparency and higher interest rates being demanded by the donor.

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Clearly there is a fundamental difference in both approaches. Over the last few weeks, however, there appears to be a shift in the rhetoric coming from the administration. This is largely because of what China has been doing around Pagasa Island and the Scarborough Shoal. A flotilla of fishing boats seems to have stationed themselves permanently around Pagasa which is probably a part of a psychological operation to wear us down into leaving the place, not to mention the environmental damage being done in the area.

The stronger statement started when the President called on the Chinese to leave Pagasa alone because it is ours. If not, he is willing to respond in kind by sending soldiers on a suicide mission to defend our sovereignty. This was followed by more statements from the Palace and the Department of Foreign Affairs. Palace spokesman Salvador Panelo also came out strong but when asked if the government is prepared to seek United States assistance in view of what China is doing, he said that we will have to wait for the President’s decision on that.

It would appear therefore that the government is not yet prepared to completely abandon its stance on this issue and take a more confrontational position. The Chinese Foreign Ministry response has always been that the Chinese claim is backed by what it calls “sufficient historical jurisdictional evidence.” This historical evidence is believed to be an obscure written parchment saying that the SCS has been claimed by China for thousands of years. This includes the Scarborough, Panatag and Ayugin Shoals. Only the Chinese have a copy of this so-called document and it has never been scientifically tested for its authenticity. The Chinese also in the past have failed to mention how ancient Chinese mariners spotted some stones protruding above the waters in what is now the Scarborough shoal and claim it for China or why China built its Great Wall to prevent so-called barbarians from entering its territory. From our limited knowledge of Chinese history, Chinese emperors considered the land outside the Great Wall outside its kingdom. But now, China wants everyone to agree that it owns the whole of SCS including the Scarborough Shoal which is within our 200-mile exclusive economic zone. China is the only country on earth that claims to own a whole sea. Not even the United States is claiming the whole of the Gulf of Mexico which is full of oil. The world expect China being a super power to behave responsibly and not intimidate or bully weaker neighbors to get what it wants. President Duterte is right that it will be folly to go to war with China. But there is such a thing as accepted international norms of behavior and why countries form alliances to protect each other.

Our President sincerely believes that the United States our only treaty ally will not go to war for us Filipinos and is not prepared to confront the might of China. Our Mutual Defense Treaty with the US, however, mandates that the US will come to our assistance if our internationally accepted territory or any vessel or aircraft is attacked by a hostile country. Whether the US, will come to our assistance is for our prospective foes to figure out. The treaty is there and is binding on both countries. Our country has won an outstanding victory with the Hague Arbitral Ruling and we should take advantage of it. The key to any government approach to the problem is reading correctly Chinese intentions. The SCS issue will continue to be a flash point in the region and needs to be navigated carefully. It is hard to see how it will eventually be resolved.

Our country happens to be near a gigantic country that also want to flex its muscle in the world stage and we are standing on the way in that country’s ambition for an unimpeded passage to the Pacific Ocean. Let us hope that our leaders understand this and act correctly and wisely.

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