"If democracy were to fail here, its promise for the rest of the world would be blighted and diminished for generations."
"If democracy were to fail here, its promise for the rest of the world would be blighted and diminished for generations."
We are writing this piece as the first five votes in the 2020 US elections were cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, all in favor of former Vice President Joe Biden. Though not a bellwether indication of who will eventually end up the winner in this highly charged presidential race between Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump, this midnight voting tradition is, to some pundits, a welcome boost to the Biden campaign as voters across the country go to the polls in the course of election day, November 3.
It will, of course, take some time before a winner emerges due to loads of maneuvering on both sides of the divide. The world can breathe a sigh of relief that this electoral exercise has come to fore amid the pandemic and threats of riots and bedlam in a number of states. Indeed, the outcome of this election matters a lot not just to the American people but to the world as a whole.
The eyes of the world are firmly fixed on the spectacle. After all, despite its failings and an increasingly polarized public, American policy still matters. Will America reconnect with the world and lend its awesome powers and influence in the global recovery from the pandemic under a re-elected President Trump whose signature “America First” is meant to reassure anxious Americans that such will “Make America Great Again”?
Or, will a Biden presidency be more accommodating yet firm enough to preserve elements of cooperation with say, China and Russia, and allow a host of increasingly nervous allies like the European Union, Japan and even the ASEAN 10 to benefit all parties and, of course, ensure less confrontation in the world?
Will the US rethink its participation in the United Nations and its component organizations such as the WHO, WTO and the World Bank, among others? Or, will it proceed with even more intensity in withdrawing from these multilateral institutions and reinvent a new network of alliances outside of the established ones such as the Asian NATO? Some observers have described the Five Nation military and security grouping (US, Japan, India, Australia and South Korea), which China has denounced, as a real threat to its security and national interest? For that matter, how will US-China relations look like no matter who wins the US presidency? The trajectory of that relationship between the world’s two biggest economies will have tremendous impact on the pace of restarting the global economic recovery but, perhaps more importantly, the make-up of the world economy in the years to come.
How the US will look at the future of coal, oil and fossil fuels in a world increasingly driven toward renewables and acquiescence to the Paris climate accords is yet another area where Trump and Biden hold starkly opposing views. President Trump has long been a champion of oil and fuel fossils deriding Biden’s half-half, neither here nor there but increasingly green energy based position. What America will do once the election dust settles will affect not only the oil-producing states such as Texas, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma, but the peace and progress in the Middle East and for that matter, even its relations with Russia.
Closer to home, how will a re-elected President Trump or a President Biden view relations with the Philippines and ASEAN? Will President Trump remain as cozy with President Duterte as has been the case over the past four years despite his harangues against China and the latter’s perceived closeness to Chinese President Xi? Will he let the country go ahead with its independent “friends to all, enemies to none” stance?
On the other hand, will a President Biden who has himself been touted as close to China and its leadership follow a more benign policy of accommodation as far as the Philippines’ relations with China is concerned? What about on trade, immigration and technology, all of which will heavily affect our own recovery while living with COVID-19?
Finally, will a President Biden allow the bleeding hearts in his expanded Democratic tent get the better of him and put President Duterte on the defensive with all the biased narratives about EJKs in the administration’s war on drugs, political repression and now the assault on the newly enacted Anti-Terrorism Law? Or, will he defer to the time-honored dictum of non-interference in the internal affairs of countries?
How these contrasting world views affect the Philippines and the rest of the world will soon play out as the winners are declared and the direction of US governance at least for the next four years emerges from the shadows.
As the WSJ election day editorial noted, for good or for bad, the US matters. More than who wins the US election, the editorial said, the world cares that America makes its system work, despite polarization and immense stress. The success or the failure of the US experiment in self-governance continues to matter, hugely, for billions of people who have never visited America, read the US Constitution or studied American history. If democracy were to fail here, its promise for the rest of the world would be blighted and diminished for generations.