"There is reason to hope. There is reason to rejoice."
"There is reason to hope. There is reason to rejoice."
There is hope. The world economy is not about to go on freefall, after all. For a while there, with the escalating US-China trade war, the stalled Brexit talks, the “scary Hong Kong protests," signs of crisis in the usual vulnerable South American and even Asian economies and, of course, stagnating prospects in most of Europe, pundits and global leaders alike have been talking about dark economic prospects. Well, that seems not to be the case as 2019 comes to a close.
Yes, the challenges remain. But what seemed like intractable problems are slowly but surely getting easier to hurdle. Take the long-running US-China trade war, for example, which saw the world's two biggest economies slugging it out throwing tariffs at each others' products like crazy. It was, in fact, on the verge of getting nastier right up to last week. But lo and behold, last Thursday, while the US House of Representatives was debating impeaching him, US President Trump ecstatically tweeted about signing off on "Phase One" of a trade deal with China—a move which took a lot of people by surprise.
Under this deal, the US suspended the imposition of another 15-percent tariff on $160 billion worth of Chinese imports scheduled to take effect last Sunday. This huge, second round of tariffs was supposed to be imposed on a host of consumer goods such as electronics, toys, clothing and power tools, among others. Had the tariff imposition materialized, analysts predicted a wrenching slowdown, not only in both the US and China but in most economies worldwide. It would have dampened consumer spending specially in the United States and degraded the stocks of many publicly listed corporations—all precursors of a truly devastating global economic contraction. President Trump had every reason to cheer as he tweeted: "They want it and so do we."
Coming as it did with news of more US jobs and steadier economic fundamentals, and dismissing the impeachment proceedings as "crock," the embattled US President said: "We have agreed to a very large phase one deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of agricultural products, energy and manufactured goods, plus much more. The 25-percent tariffs will remain as is, with 7.5 percent put on much of the remainder. the penalty tariffs set for Dec. 15 will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the phase two deal immediately rather than waiting until after the 2020 elections. This is an amazing deal for all."
Indeed, the deal is welcome news to a world pummeled left and right with all kinds of problems, both natural and man made. It made possible a number of "growth" initiatives across the board globally. Even the dire predictions of a spike in critical commodities such as oil with unrest in two of the biggest exporters—Iran and Iraq—and the damage caused by spasms of a dying ISIS network were somehow tempered by the deal. In all probability, it could have also triggered the landslide victory of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party which could finally end the debates on Brexit and alter the European Union’s make in more ways than one by next year.
It is not far-fetched that the deal could infuse fresh blood and unleash vigor and vitality in most economies. It could reopen previously atrophied trading links, restart manufacturing activities in many areas, refinance many stalled projects worldwide and get global tourism going all over again. Our very own push for "Build, Build, Build," the introduction of universal health coverage and opening up of the hinterlands for productive endeavors will definitely get going as early as the first quarter of 2020.
There is really no question that this trade deal will affect the country positively. Quite apart from those already stated above, there is the equally good prospect of the millions of our countrymen in 110 countries worldwide keeping their jobs, getting paid on time and even compensated higher. Not even the possibility of even more horrific traffic jams in our major cities, the non-resolution of the issues and concerns raised over the rice tariffication bill, rate increases in utilities (minus water at least for January 2020), non-passage of the CITIRA bill, pollution and flooding in many areas and the impact of the earthquakes in Mindanao can dampen the gains which this trade deal can bring. It may not come immediately but it will surely come.
There is reason to hope. There is reason to rejoice. And what a time for hope and rejoicing as we celebrate the birth of our Savior. Rejoice, rejoice indeed.