"I’m prepared to wager that the majority of the voters in a fresh referendum, having in mind the turmoil and divisiveness of the past two years, will vote to keep the UK within the EU."
"I’m prepared to wager that the majority of the voters in a fresh referendum, having in mind the turmoil and divisiveness of the past two years, will vote to keep the UK within the EU."Fed up with incessant pressure from the anti-European Union wing of his party—the Euroskeptics—Conservative Party leader David Cameron called in 2016 a national referendum on the issue of continued United Kingdom membership in the 28-nation group. Cameron was obviously confident of victory for the pro-EU citizens of Britain—dubbed the Remainers—but when the votes were counted, the young Prime Minister was shocked to learn that the Remainers’ opponents, the Leavers, had won, 52 percent to 48 percent.
Brexit (Britain’s exit from Europe) was born. From the moment of its birth Brexit has been a source of friction and discord for the British nation. It has been a highly divisive issue, with Leavers and Remainers exchanging charges of reckless behavior, wooly-headed thinking, irrationality and even treason. The UK has been totally distracted by Brexit during the last three years.
Unrelentingly opposed by the Remain-favoring Labour Party—the other major party in Britain’s Paliament—and deserted by the Conservatives’ Scottish Nationalist and Liberal Democratic allies, Cameron’s successor, Teresa May, sought the dissolution of Parliament and the holding of a general election. May, who was originally a Remainer, was confident of achieving a victory that would strengthen her hand against the Brexiters. That was not to be, and May’s government ended up having to depend on a 10-seat Northern Irish party. That outcome complicated matters vastly because the EU-member Republic of Ireland shared an open border with Northern Ireland, which is a component of the UK.
Enter the present Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. Unable to win Parliamentary approval for three successive Brexit plans, May decided to throw in the towel and ask Queen Elizabeth II to appoint a new Prime Minister. Her Majesty appointed the Conservative Party’s choice, Boris Johnson, the rambunctious former mayor of London.
As long as the Conservative Party did not have an outright Parliamentary majority, Mr. Johnson could not negotiate credibly with the EU on a Brexit deal before Jan. 31, 2020, the latest deadline for agreement on such a deal. Thus, the Prime Minister’s best recourse was the holding of another general election, the third in a span of two years.
The election will take place today. The two-month-long campaign has been a bruising affair, with the anti-Brexit parties taking the fight to Mr. Johnson and his staunch Brexiteers.
Boris Johnson, Brexit Party leader Nigel Faraje and the rest of the Leavers almost certainly did not realize how difficult exiting from the EU would be. Predictably, the EU leadership was not going to give the Brexiteers an easy time in the negotiations. The UK—through Prime Ministers May and Johnson—has seen its proposals rejected, one after the other, by the UK. The past two years have been a time of humiliation for the nation whose national anthem once was Rule Britannica. London’s negotiations have cut rather pathetic figures in the halls and corridors of the EU headquarters.
Will the Remainers, who comprised 48 percent of the 2016 electorate, prevail today? If the Conservatives again fail to win a majority, and the Remain-favoring Labor Party emerges victorious, that is a distinct possibility. A large fraction within the Labor Party favors the holding of a new referendum on continued UK membership in the EU.
I am not a betting man, but I’m prepared to wager that the majority of the voters in a fresh referendum, having in mind the turmoil and divisiveness of the past two years, will vote to keep the UK within the EU.