The coming election is remarkable in a number of ways. One is the fact that one of the candidates for the Presidency of the Philippines is a grandson—and namesake of a former President. Manuel Roxas II is the grandson of Manuel Acuna Roxas, the first Chief Executive elected by the people of a newly independent Philippines.
True, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the daughter of President Diosdado Macapagal, served as Chief Executive for the equivalent of one and a half terms (2001-2010), but there is a widely held belief that it was Fernando Poe Jr. who won the Presidential election of 2004.
They may be grandfather and grandson, and they may have a similar name, but Manuel Roxas and Manuel Roxas II sought (in the case of the former) or is seeking (in the case of Mar Roxas) the nation’s top position under geopolitical circumstances that differed vastly. One is led to wonder how Manuel Roxas the grandfather would have fared if he were seeking the Presidency today.
The Presidential election of 1946—a Manuel Roxas versus Commonwealth President Sergio Osmeña affair—was held close to July 4, 1946, when the Philippines received its independence from the US. It is widely conceded that Roxas’ narrow victory over Osmeña was largely attributable to the Commonwealth President’s refusal to campaign actively. Some political commentators have attributed it to Sergio Osmena’s gentlemanly and peaceable nature. Whatever the true reason, the Commonwealth President’s refusal to wage a strong campaign ended in the victory of the Liberal Party, which the ambitious Manuel Roxas had carved out of the until-then-dominant Nacionalista Party, over the Osmena-led Nacionalistas.
Fittingly, Manuel Roxas II is the standard-bearer of the party that his grandfather founded 70 years earlier.
One big difference is that whereas Manuel Roxas was his own man in 1946—and dictated his party’s policies—Mar Roxas is tied to the policies and politics of administration of his outgoing partymate, P-Noy Aquino. Cory Aquino’s son campaigned in 2010 on a daang matuwid (straight path) platform and governed the country on the basis of policies and party politics that hewed to the path that was matuwid. Mar Roxas could have opted to campaign on a different platform, but he decided to stay with the daang matuwid, undoubtedly out of fear that his persistently low opinion-survey ratings might have convinced the Liberal Party’s leaders to dump him in favor of a higher-rating candidate. As a result, Roxas’ victory prospects are riding on the electorate’s assessment of the daang matuwid’s efficaciousness.
Grandson Mar Roxas suffers by comparison with his grandfather and namesake. My late father, who became close to Manuel Acuna Roxas during their National Assembly days, spoke of his colleague in terms of charisma, brilliance and abundant political savvy. I hope to be forgiven for saying this, but I have yet to hear anyone characterize his grandson as charismatic or brilliant or politically sharp. Especially charismatic: I have never heard anyone describe Mar Roxas as a charismatic person. Among highly personalistic voters like Filipino voters, charisma counts for a lot.
The electoral situation 70 years earlier is vastly different from the 2016 election. The Presidential election of 1946, when the multiple-party system was not yet in place, was a straight fight between only two protagonists. By contrast, the coming election is a slam-bang affair, with no less than four other announced contenders. In 1946 the voter was either an Osmeñanista or a Liberal; in 2016 the possibilities for switching and substitution are numerous.
At the start of 1946 campaign season, Manuel Roxas clearly was the underdog. Not only did Sergio Osmena’s loyal wartime service, his devotion to the much-loved President Quezon and his party’s formidable logistical capability make him very difficult to beat, but the Liberal Party was weak and had as yet no combat experience. But by dint of his charisma, his abundant political savvy and his tireless campaigning, the former National Assembly Speaker clawed his way up to the electoral-leadership position, beating Sergio Osmeña by—as has already been said—a narrow margin.
Is this country likely to see a second Manuel Roxas take the Presidential oath of office a few months from now? Is Mar Roxas likely to produce a political miracle on May 9, 2016? Roxas in 1946 and again in 2016?
The answer to these and similar questions rest, I dare say, on the answer to yet another question. Is Manuel Roxas, grandson, cast in the same personal and professional mold as Manuel Roxas, grandfather? My own answer is No.
E-mail: rudyromero777@yahoo.com