On a long four-day weekend when the news dwelled mostly about Filipinos visiting the cemeteries to remember their dear departed, former President Fidel Valdez Ramos seized the moment to announce his resignation as the government’s special envoy to China. It was nothing earth-shaking, but still FVR’s resignation made the headlines. The Palace has not yet received the official letter from Ramos but said it would continue to consult the former president.
Normally, the Ramos resignation would have been dismissed as just a blip in the Duterte radar screen. That Digong did not speak with his usual acerbic remarks shows he is deferential to the former president and that FVR is still a factor in Philippine politics. Ramos is not yet the spent force that some political observers perceive him to be. A graduate of the US military school West Point, the 84-year-old Ramos could yet turn out to be the rallying figure in the event of an upheaval by the local military establishment. Do not take him lightly and his ominous comment that “old soldiers never fade away.”
We are not implying Ramos is hatching up a sinister plot to unseat Duterte. Still, the Philippine political situation is always a volatile one. It could suddenly erupt into a regime change as we have witnessed in People Power One and Two which toppled strongman Ferdinand Marcos and popularly elected President Joseph Estrada and replaced them with Cory Aquino and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, respectively. The Edsa uprisings happenedwith the complicity of the military establishment. By simply withdrawing its support to then-presidents Marcos and Estrada, the two were deposed by the people and the backing of big business.
Ramos recently faulted Duterte for saying he would not ratify the Paris accord on climate change and for continuing to slam the United States, the United Nations and the European Union—known allies that grant the Philippines huge investments and foreign aid. Two weeks earlier, Ramos compared the Philippines to a “sinking ship skippered by Digong who’s unmindful of the danger signs ahead.” According to him, Duterte was not steering the ship to safer waters.
“I have accomplished my mission of breaking the ice between China and the Philippines,” said Ramos, referring to his back-channel effort to repair the strained relations between the two countries. It may have been the right decision since President Duterte has already appointed Chito Sta. Romana as the Philippine ambassador to China. Beijing as receiving state has not given its “agrement.” Pronounced as agremon, this is the diplomatic term for approval of an ambassador by the host or receiving state.
Without mentioning FVR’s role in President Duterte’s four-day state visit to China, the Philippines reaped billions of pesos in loans, grants and investments. But more than these pledges and memoranda of agreement, the most significant—although not in the official communiqué —is the easing up of the Chinese control of Panatag known internationally as Scarborough Shoal. The shoal was seized by China in April 2012 after a standoff that saw Chinese gunboats staying and later driving away Filipino fishermen from plying their trade near the shoal.
There is no official announcement from Beijing about allowing the Filipino fishermen to sail back to the Scarborough Shoal waters which is about 230 miles off the Zambales coast line. The Chinese patrol boats are still in the area but this time they did not harass Filipino fishermen to go away with loud speakers and drive them away with water cannons.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China’s nine-dash line has no legal basis and upheld Manila’s challenge to Beijing’s sweeping claim to nearly the entire South China Sea and encroachment on the West Philippine Sea. Bejing made clear it is not accepting The Hague court’s decision and that it would deal with the issue on a bilateral basis with other SCS claimants. Its easing of control over the area may be seen as a result of bilateral talks and quiet diplomacy between Beijing and Manila during Duterte’s visit.
“This is a win-win situation for both sides,” said National Security Adfviser Hermogenes Esperon, Jr. who is a known Ramos man in the Duterte administration. Will Esperon stay in the Duterte Cabinet even after his political patron Ramos has resigned?