Because of his “foot in mouth” propensity, President Rodrigo Duterte could be scaring away millions of dollars in US aid.
The mercurial Duterte may say, so what? And possibly say it with his usual expletive, profanity-laced words for Washington. But these are the cold, hard figures the Philippines received from the US in fiscal year 2016: $175 million as development assistance; $50 million in foreign military spending; and $75 million for counter terrorism and maritime security. Since 2011, the Philippines got three US Coast Guard cutters.
Digong is losing his cool and the Philippines is losing friends. Allies like the US, in particular, are starting to rethink its relationship with the Philippines which has a Mutual Defense Treaty with Washington. The 1951 MDT was further strengthened with the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement signed two years ago when the Chinese dragon was breathing too closely on our necks in the West Philippine Sea. Edca grants US troops access to Philippine military bases under the Visiting Forces Agreement and the annual Balikatan war exercises between the two countries.
Can Duterte recoup or replace US foreign aid when he comes visiting in Beijing on October 19 to 20? Mr. Duterte has made known his plans to purchase military hardware from China and Russia, a move surely not welcomed by Washington. How sure are we of getting high-quality weapons and not substandard ones from China? We have a running territorial row with Beijing in the West Philippine Sea. If the Chinese-made weapons are up to par, what guarantee do we have that spare parts are available in the event the territorial row comes to a head? A shift in China’s policy in its nine-dash line claim to nearly the entire South China Sea looks remote despite a Duterte visit to Beijing.
The Chinese need the territory that is potentially rich in oil, gas and mineral resources beneath the sea to solve its internal problem posed by having to feed 1.3 billion people.
Apparently, the President’s visit is to make up for the non-event back channel efforts of former President Fidel V. Ramos who was tapped by Duterte as special envoy to repair strained relations with China. To soften the failure of the back channeling effort, the Palace will probably issue a statement saying FVR worked out the Duterte visit. While Washington officials still see US-PHL ties as “iron clad” going back to the 1951 MDT, a dent in relations has certainly begun to appear since Duterte assumed power. Washington circles cannot be blamed for seeing in Duterte’s outbursts against President Barack Obama and his courtship of China and Russia as an inclination to sleep with the enemy.
In his latest eyebrow-raising statement, Duterte said he wants to review Edca which has been upheld by the Supreme Court as legal, valid and binding. How can one man overturn a high court ruling? He maintains Edca was not signed by the President of the Republic but only by Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and his US counterpart. Duterte has taken issue with Supreme Court Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno. Is Rody ready to take it to the next level or will he wait until he can stack the SC with his own appointees? He has made threats to abolish Congress if it becomes an obstruction against his policies especially his war on drugs.
Half-a-million residents and naturalized American-Filipinos also frown on any strain on US-Philippine relations. They can lobby their respective congressmen to stop the foreign aid pipeline if the present president of the Philippines does not desist from his destructive ranting against the US and the UN.
Some members of the US congress in key budget, military and foreign relations committees are asking for a review of US support to the Philippines because of the extrajudicial killings arising from Duterte’s ruthless war on drugs and Digong’s mouthful against US foreign policy and President Obama. There is a powerful Jewish lobby in Washington. Although he already apologized for comparing the extrajudicial killings of drug suspects to Adolf Hitler’s slaughter of three million Jews, it isn’t going to assuage the outrage of the powerful and influential Jewish bloc in American society. It is a reality in US politics that presidential and congressional candidates, whether Democrats or Republicans, get huge contributions from the Jewish lobby that controls business conglomerates and multinational companies.
It’s a basic rule in life that you don’t bite the hand that feeds you. That adage still holds true today, in politics and more so in international relations.
Meanwhile, the House of Representatives is set to approve the P3.3-trillion national budget by year’s end. The President has been promising salary increases to military and police personnel. Income tax exemptions to those earning not more than P250,000 a year is also in the offing. Where will the Duterte administration source the funds for all this? It does not take a rocket scientist to know the numbers do not add up.