"How will the post-pandemic world look like?"
"How will the post-pandemic world look like?"
Was President Rodrigo Duterte serious when he said he would lift the lockdown only when a vaccine has been developed to prevent or cure COVID-19?
This after he earlier dangled P10 million to a Filipino or a group of Filipinos who would be able to develop such a vaccine.
Last Thursday, he said he would even increase the amount to P50 million or even P100 million if he felt particularly generous.
From what we've read so far, there are already advanced efforts especially in the developed countries, such as the United States, Europe and China, among others, to come up with a COVID-19 vaccine.
The National Institute of Health in the US is working with research firm Moderna on human trials of a vaccine for COVID-19. Their product could be available in about a year and a half, according to Dr. Antonio Fauci.
At the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine Center, scientists are also looking at a potential new vaccine based on their previous ground research on the similar viruses SARS and MERS.
In Europe, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations based in Oslo, Norway is working in partnership with the French Institut Pasteur-led consortium to test eight different vaccine candidates against COVID-19.
In China, a vaccine being co-developed by CanSino Biologics and the Academy of Military Medical Sciences started its first stage clinical trial in Wuhan on March 16, with results expected by end of April.
If there are ongoing efforts by Filipino scientists to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, they should be given full support by the government. But if we're just starting research, we will have to wait a long time before our own scientists can see the fruit of their labors. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a potential COVID-19 vaccine must first undergo an exploratory phase, followed by the preclinical stage, clinical development, regulatory review/approval, and manufacturing and quality control, before they are approved by regulatory agencies for widespread use. Scientists are saying that it normally takes between 10 and 15 years for a drug or vaccine to go from development through testing phases and on to licensing and large-scale manufacture.
In the case of the COVID-19 vaccine, the most optimistic projection is that it would take between 18 months to two years to mass-produce the vaccine and deliver them to hospitals.
So what does that make of President Duterte's statement that he would lift the Luzon lockdown only after a vaccine is developed?
Do we have to wait for two long years or by the end of his term before he lifts the lockdown?
How will the 'new normal' look like?
Experts predict that the COVID-19 pandemic will change the way we do things. How will the post-pandemic world look like? Here are some possibilities from what I've gathered.
Working from home: The pandemic has led to “work from home” arrangements for many. We can look forward to more people opting to work from home in part due to horrible traffic in Metro Manila. Advances in ICT, such as 5G and cloud technology will also make this more widespread. Office meetings through videoconferencing will increasingly be conducted.
Education: Although teachers will always be integral to the education process, they should have flexibility and agility when it comes to delivery of content, testing, and grading. We can expect an increase in mixed learning environments that include learning in both the physical classroom setting and online.
Healthcare: The adoption of digital health tools, from assessment services to telemedicine, has rapidly accelerated, with healthcare organizations across the world looking to digital solutions to support their efforts against the pandemic.
Computer technology: Within the next 12 to 18 months, we can expect quantum computers to routinely solve problems that supercomputers and cloud computing cannot. When humanity faces the next pandemic, a quantum computer will be able to model the virus, its interactions within the human body that will drive possible solutions, and limit future economic damage and human suffering.
Transportation: As we look to the reopening of cities, people will be looking for affordable, reliable ways to stay socially distant while commuting, including turning to transportation options such as ride share, bike share, and scooters. There will also be an opportunity for local governments, as well as key advocates and stakeholders, to consider reshaping cities to be built around people and not cars.
Manufacturing: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused supply chain and factory disruptions across the world globe. Before this, manufacturers relied on creating products in centralized factories with low-cost labor halfway around the world. In the future, businesses, factories and supply chains will have to become more resilient due to full automation and software-based management.
Retailing: COVID-19 will not mean the end of brick-and-mortar stores, but they will have to change the way they operate. The crisis will force small businesses relying on foot traffic as their main source of income to develop alternative revenue streams. Restaurants, for example, may have to link up with delivery service platforms or expand their geographic reach via ghost kitchens. Boutiques will have to develop or broaden their online presence that reaches beyond local communities.
ernhil@yahoo.com