“A Senate that will vote for keeping Sara Duterte in her current position as Vice President will mean an uncertain future for Philippine democracy”
NO DOUBT eagerly awaited by many would be the outcome of the senatorial race on May 12, as the next batch of members of the Upper Chamber of Congress would decide on the fate of impeached Vice President Sara Duterte.
The latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and released on April 21 showed that 9 candidates of the pro-administration Alyansa ng Bagong Pilipinas coalition are likely to win.
However, another recent survey by Octa Research showed all 11 senatorial candidates endorsed by President Marcos Jr. have a statistical chance of winning in the midterm polls. Conducted from April 10 to 16, the poll showed ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo leading the administration-backed bets with 61.2-percent support, ranking first to second.
The leading candidates in the SWS survey are (1) Bong Go; (2) Erwin Tulfo; (3) Bato de la Rosa; (4) Lito Lapid; (5) Tito Sotto; (6) Ping Lacson ; (7) Manny Pacquiao; (8) Pia Cayetano; (9) Bong Revilla; (10) Abby Binay; (11) Camille Villar; and (12) Willie Revillame/Imee Marcos.
If the nine Alyansa senatorial candidates will win—and we assume they will adopt the stand of the Marcos Jr. administration supporting Sara’s removal from office—they will need seven other senators to support their anti-Sara stand.
The remaining senators after the midterm polls are Senate President Francis Escudero; Jinggoy Estrada; Nancy Binay; Alan Peter Cayetano; JV Ejercito; Sherwin Gatchalian; Risa Hontiveros; Loren Legarda; Raffy Tulfo; Joel Villanueva; and Migs Zubiri.
Of these, we can be certain that only opposition senator Risa Hontiveros will decide to convict Sara and remove her from office.
We expect Jinggoy Estrada, Alan Peter Cayetano and Robinhood Padilla to vote for Sara’s acquittal.
Up in the air is what the verdict of the other sitting senators would be: Escudero; Binay; Gatchalian; Legarda; Ejercito; Villanueva; and Zubiri.
So, if the 9 Alyansa bets make it to the Senate and are united in toeing the administration move to get rid of Sara, they can rely only on Hontiveros to join them. They therefore need to convince the seven aforementioned senators who have yet to make up their minds on what stand to take once the impeachment trial starts.
The seven senators who have kept mum on the issue are Escudero, Binay, Gatchalian, Legarda, Ejercito, Villanueva, and Zubiri.
How will they vote? We don’t really know. They can go one way or the other. And their decision will depend on their appreciation of the evidence presented by the prosecution lawyers coming mainly from the House of representatives. Or they can vote according to what would advance their political career in the future.
Of course, there are other factors to consider. Senator Bato de la Rosa, who implemented Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody war on drugs, is likely to be ordered arrested by the ICC for his direct participation in crimes against humanity. If that happens, Sara loses a yes vote.
Then there’s the possibility that even Bong Go could also be arrested by the ICC for his complicity in Duterte’s war on drugs.
While the homestretch of the campaign from now until the first 11 days in May would likely lead to changes in the senatorial race, we’ll have to wait and see what will happen in the aftermath of the impeachment trial.
If Sara is acquitted by the Senate impeachment court, then she stands as a strong contender for the presidency in 2028.
The possibility of a second Duterte administration is likely to send chills of apprehension down the spines of those who want a regime that stands firmly on the side of democracy and human rights in the country and resolutely oppose any vestige of Dutertismo that’s seen to resurface should Sara take the reins of the presidency in 2028.
She is likely to run after those who opposed her during the Marcos Jr. administration and hounded her for corruption and incompetence.
But if Sara is convicted and removed from office, that is the end of her political career as she can no longer run for any public office in the future. Would this bring an end to the Duterte dynasty and prevent the remaining Dutertes from keeping themselves in power?
A Senate that will vote for keeping Sara Duterte in her current position as Vice President will mean an uncertain future for Philippine democracy.
It is therefore imperative for the electorate to vote only for those senatorial bets who will exercise prudent judgment and decide on her case based on a careful weighing of the available evidence unearthed by the House quadcomm instead of voting along political or partisan considerations. (Email: ernhil@yahoo.com)