Don’t look now, but with the armies of various ethnic groups in Myanmar making big inroads in capturing towns and cities throughout the country in recent weeks, the political crisis could end soon and usher in a return to civilian rule.
The military junta launched a coup on Feb 1, 2021 claiming widespread fraud in the November 2020 election that saw Aung San Suu Kyi and her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), win an overwhelming majority.
But the military junta offered no evidence of such fraud, and vowed instead to hold new elections within a year. No such elections took place after a year.
The military mounted the coup d’etat on Feb 1 as they were unwilling to give up their lucrative and wide-ranging business interests and did not want a diminution of political influence in Myanmar with pro-democracy forces in positions of power.
The military already enjoys 25 percent representation in the Myanmar parliament as ordained by their constitution.
After the power grab by the military, the people of Myanmar marched in the streets of Yangon and other cities demanding an immediate end to military rule and freedom for Suu Kyi and other elected civilian leaders.
But the junta responded with brute force, killing many protesters and arresting thousands more. Many protesters then stopped the civil disobedience campaign and joined the armed rebels.
The Tatmadaw, the name of the Myanmar military, committed crimes against humanity by killing unarmed protesters ventilating their main demand for a return to democratic rule, or a semblance of it.
This is an urgent moral challenge for the international community.
When grave violations of international humanitarian law and human rights occur, war crimes and crimes against humanity are committed, the international community cannot simply shrug their shoulders and walk away, but take decisive action to end such violations.
We have followed the events unfolding in that country since then and monitored the efforts of the main ethnic groups with their own armies to unite and fight the Tatmadaw.
Latest news reports indicate rebel forces under the Brotherhood Alliance that brought together the three biggest armies of the ethnic groups have managed to seize significant swatches of the Myanmar countryside.
They have also managed to convince hundreds of government troops to defect to their side.
The Tatmadaw is far larger in number and better trained.
They also have superior firepower, such as fighter jets, tanks, artillery.
But the rebels hold the moral high ground and determined to overthrow the military junta. Whether they can do so in the immediate future despite overwhelming odds is unclear at this point.
Myanmar is a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
But the leaders of its junta have been banned from the bloc’s high-level meetings since failing to implement an agreed on five-point peace plan following the 2021 coup.
The peace plan called for an immediate end to violence in Myanmar, the holding of dialogue among all parties, the appointment of a special envoy, the delivery of humanitarian assistance from ASEAN and a visit of the special envoy to Myanmar to meet with all parties.
Three ASEAN leaders met in April 2021 with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the military junta in Myanmar, and obtained a commitment from him for the peace plan.
But he has carried out not one of these five pledges.
The ASEAN accord appears doomed to fail as it glaringly lacked any timeline for ending the crisis.
We are aware that ASEAN can only do so much because leaders adhere to the principle of non-interference in the affairs of states even as human rights issues have cropped up in certain member-states.
While openly in favor of non-interference, the regional bloc also works through what has been called the “ASEAN Way,” which is to try to reach consensus on contentious issues, away from the limelight.
If I recall correctly, both the UN General Assembly and the Security Council have already approved resolutions as far back as 2021 calling for restraint on the part of the Myanmar military junta and the protection of unarmed civilians.
The international community should intervene in the Myanmar political crisis since the military junta has shown no sign it is willing to bend over backwards and accede to the key demands of the people of Myanmar.
We have no illusion that the military junta in Myanmar will soon hand over power to the very people they ousted from office.
But growing armed resistance by various indigenous groups, international economic sanctions and dogged diplomatic efforts should send a very strong message to the military junta that they cannot rule with an iron hand for long, and a peaceful settlement is in the long-term interest of the nation and the entire Southeast Asian region as well.
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