“This is what I think is really happening in Ukraine.”
Part I
The world today is confused about which of the countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will the West refer to as allies in the event Russia invades Ukraine. This has become complicated because the heightened tension between the US and Russia is centered on that former Soviet Republic.
NATO general secretary Jens Stoltenberg is insisting the alliance is obligated to defend Ukraine when today, that former Soviet state has yet to become a member. He insists that it is the right of Ukraine to choose which bloc it wishes to align itself to, it being a right of a sovereign and independent state. Unfortunately, he failed to mention the business the British warship was doing off the coast of the Black Sea except to stalk at the Russian naval base in Sevastopol. UK is a member of NATO but it has no business patrolling that sea as if to act on behalf of the alliance.
Prior to the current crisis, the US has been instigating social unrest in Ukraine. The unrest culminated in the overthrow of the legitimately- elected President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014. That was followed by a flurry of anti-Russian resentment. The drumbeating for Ukraine to join NATO stepped up. That agitation intensified, reaching its peak in a coup dubbed as “colored revolution” but actually supported by the CIA using its front organization, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) to make it appear as a popular civilian uprising. That resulted in the shooting of several protesters at the center of Maidan Square. The protesters called their political action “revolution of dignity.”
That protest ended in bloodbath killing about 130 civilians including 18 police officers by unidentified gunmen. President Viktor Yanukovych had to flee for his safety. No investigation was conducted nor arrests were made to get the perpetrators of the massacre. Many suspect those involved were snipers from the Azov battalion, a neo-Nazi front purposely created to overthrow Yanukovych.
The bloodbath was immediately followed by anti-Russian hysteria. Without the Ukrainians having an inkling that the US and its co-conspirators would be carrying out a massive de-industrialization program for their country. Then US ambassador to Ukraine Victoria Nuland, together with Senator John McCain joined the crowd in celebrating their “victory.” Nuland was seen handing goodies like what the US GIs did in their liberated areas during World War II.
US policy makers then began to press Ukraine to join NATO. That move endangered the lives of the local Russians living in the Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk. Because of intense anti-Russian resentment, the two provinces promptly declared independence. The new government scrapped the Russian language, abolished all Russian newspapers and desecrated monuments and memorials erected in honor of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers that liberated Ukraine against the Nazi occupation. On top of it, the US-installed government elevated as hero Stepan Bandera, a neo-Nazi disguised as nationalist which many Ukrainian and Russians very much resented.
Ukraine was divided into several parts like what the West did in Sudan, Somalia, and Libya, and each controlled by oligarchs. The de-industrialization could be seen in how the US-installed government dismantled Ukraine’s heavy industries built during the Soviet era. Ukraine was the manufacturer of the biggest aircraft engines that produced Antonov An-124, the biggest air transport in the world. The engine manufacturer, Motor Zitch, was later sold to China, only to backout because the West opposed the sale until the company was closed down.
The same was done when Ukraine imposed exorbitant transit fees to Russia’s natural gas passing Ukraine to Western Europe. Germany offered Russia an alternative of constructing a pipeline passing through to the Baltic Sea. The project known as Nord Stream 2 is today being imperiled as the US wants to block the pipeline, though it is just awaiting final approval by the German government.
NATO secretary general Jen Stoltenberg must bear in mind that Ukraine is not a member of the military alliance. If Russia should invade Ukraine, strictly speaking NATO cannot come to its side as an ally. The alliance will only come to Ukraine’s defense if it is a member. If NATO violates the red line imposed by Russia, the countdown for war is now ticking. Many observe NATOs’ supply of arms and the arrival of military advisers in Ukraine is a recipe for miscalculation. One cannot say a proxy war is in the offing but that could not be discounted to spill over into nuclear conflagration. Russia’s red line should serve as a warning to that and crossing the red line poses a threat to Russia’s security.
The West failed to analyze why Russia will not invade Ukraine. US and NATO ignored that Russia has much to lose if it invades Ukraine. A war in Ukraine would affect a sizable number of the Russian-speaking population living in that country, and could destroy the huge investment it poured in to help that country during the Soviet era. Besides, the West failed to take into account the importance of historical roots that bind the two countries. Lest they forget, Ukraine and Russia are Slavic- speaking countries and their affinity is deeper than the US propaganda of democracy and freedom.
On the other hand, the US is mainly interested in selling arms to sustain the demands of its arms industry and the money generated out of war. The enticement to join the alliance is merely to add color and decoration to its quest for power and hegemony to keep alive a dying empire. Even if the US and its allies insist it was Russia that first occupied Crimea to justify its narrative of aggression, they forgot that Crimea historically belongs to Russia.
That portion of the Crimean Peninsula was handed to Ukraine during the leadership of Soviet Premier Nikita Khruschev. Incidentally, Khrushchev was a Ukrainian who denounced and de-Stalinize the deceased Soviet wartime leader who is from Georgia, another state of the Soviet federation that has been creating trouble for Russia. Khrushchev’s handing of Crimea to Ukraine was without the approval of the Supreme Soviet, the highest lawmaking body of the defunct Soviet Republics.
Russia wanted Crimea back because it needed an outlet for its naval ships from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The current Russian base of Sevastopol is the interest why Russia wanted to take back what historically belonged to them, and focus Western interest to Central Asia. The turmoil in Kazakhstan cannot be discounted as an isolated incident.
Thus, the circumstances behind the events that are happening in Ukraine could not be said that NATO did not put pressure on that country to join the alliance, and maybe expected to be rewarded a naval base in exchange for a showdown with Russia. With Russia putting a deadline for the West to comply to its demands, the bell is now ticking as who will give way to Russia’s demands to put to an end to NATO’s eastward expansion, to dismantle its military infrastructure, and to remove all nuclear weapons in Western Europe, Turkey, Japan and South Korea that now encircle Russia.