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Friday, March 29, 2024

Metro average daily cases dip by 17% at 105

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Metro Manila averaged 105 new COVID-19 cases a day from Dec. 1 to 7, 17 percent lower than the 126 cases a day it averaged from Nov. 24 to 30, the independent OCTA Research Group said Wednesday, as all its 16 cities and one municipality were classified as either very low risk or low risk for infection.

Malabon, Navotas, Caloocan, Pateros, Valenzuela, Marikina, Manila, Parañaque, Pasay, Las Piñas, and Mandaluyong were classified as “very low risk” for COVID-19, while Muntinlupa, Makati, Quezon City, Pasig, Taguig, and San Juan were classified as “low risk.”

The Philippines was recently classified as a minimal risk for COVID-19.

The National Capital Region (NCR) reported a reproduction number of 0.34, slightly lower than the 0.3 reproduction number recorded from Nov. 29 to Dec. 5.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people who can be infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

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The average daily attack rate in the region stood at 0.74 per 100,000, OCTA said.

OCTA said NCR also recorded a positivity rate of 1.1 percent, meeting the benchmark of both the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

OCTA said its report does not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Health, the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) or local government units.

A fellow with the group, Guido David, said an area should have at least 80 percent of its population vaccinated and a reproduction number below 1 to be considered as having achieved herd immunity from COVID-19.

In an interview on GMA News Online, David said there is only one formula in assessing herd immunity, which is based on the vaccination rate and reproduction number.

Vaccine efficacy will also affect herd immunity, he said.

David said that the formula assumes that the vaccines have 100 percent efficacy. He pointed out that assessing herd immunity will be hard for a population that uses a mix of brands as they have different levels of efficacy.

Areas with herd immunity have a high level of protection from a surge of COVID-19 cases. However, he reminded the public that there is still a low chance for a surge.

Children will also be more protected around vaccinated adults in areas with herd immunity.

Asked about workers from areas with a low vaccinated population traveling to places with herd immunity, David said that it is unlikely for a worker to carry the disease due to the high vaccine coverage.

David said the worker is more vulnerable in areas with low vaccine coverage.

On Tuesday, the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) said it has recorded 23 highly urbanized cities, mostly in Metro Manila, that have reached herd immunity against COVID-19.

These communities were 70 percent vaccinated, DILG Secretary Eduardo Año said in his report to President Rodrigo Duterte.

David said he is not aware if government agencies use the same formula for herd immunity.

A former adviser to the government on the pandemic said the Philippines could reach its target of vaccinating 70 percent to 90 percent of the population by the first quarter of 2022, casting doubts on its plan to reach herd immunity by the end of the year because of logistical challenges.

“In terms of national [coverage], we’re still far off, because of logistics problems in (the Visayas and Mindanao) area, and of course because of their higher vaccine hesitancy,” said Dr. Tony Leachon.

Leachon said the government must still work on meeting its goal of vaccinating 90 percent of the population as soon as possible, as the threat of the COVID-19 Omicron variant looms around the globe.

But the Palace said it is confident that the country will surpass its target of fully vaccinating 54 million Filipinos by the end of the year if its next vaccine drive from Dec. 15 to 17 will be as successful as the first.

Acting presidential spokesman Karlo Nograles said the second round of “Bayanihan, Bakunahan,” which will run from December 15 to 17, is the last big “push” being done towards exceeding the country’s goal.

The first Bayanihan, Bakunahan event, held from Nov. 29 to Dec. 3, administered about 10.2 million COVID-19 vaccine doses across the country.

“I think by Dec. 31 of 2021 we are all confident that we will surpass the 54 million fully vaccinated, especially if we get the same support or even much more support for the second round of the Bayanihan, Bakunahan,” he said in an interview over CNN Philippines.

Also on Wednesday, Labor Assistant Secretary Dominique Tutay said the Philippines now has 17 million fully vaccinated workers.

Tutay said the vaccination rate among workers rose after the government held a mass vaccination drive against COVID-19.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III, meanwhile, said compliance with minimum public health standards and high vaccination rates, may help keep the country’s COVID-19 cases low even after the holidays.

In an interview on radio dzBB, Duque said these two factors may help prevent cases from increasing to the same level as during the Delta surge when the Philippines recorded a seven-day moving average of 21,000 to 22,000 cases.

The Philippines logged 370 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, bringing the total number of cases to 2,835,593.

There were 171 new fatalities reported, bringing the COVID-19 death toll to 49,761.

The DOH also reported 859 new recoveries, bringing the total number of recoveries to 2,773,322.

There were 12,510 active cases, of which 883 were asymptomatic; 4,974 mild; 3,916 moderate; 2,261 severe; and 476 critical.

The positivity rate was at 1.6 percent, based on samples of 28,942 people tested on Dec. 6.

Nationwide, 24 percent of ICU beds, 24 percent of isolation beds, 13 percent of ward beds, and 14 percent of ventilators, were in use.

In Metro Manila, 24 percent of ICU beds, 21 percent of isolation beds, 19 percent of ward beds, and 16 percent of ventilators, were in use.

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