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Thursday, March 28, 2024

As NCR cases, reproduction rate continue to decline, DOH: Alert Level 3 likely

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Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Metro Manila may be placed under Alert Level 3 if COVID-19 cases continue to decline as the independent OCTA Research said the reproduction number in the region has gone down to 0.61 for the week of Oct. 2 to 8.

“The decrease in cases from September 29 to October 5 showed our daily average was at 13,500 cases based on a seven-day moving average. This is 23 percent lower than the previous week. This is a significant decline from the week before of 17,500 average daily cases. We hope the average daily cases will still go down to 45 percent or 50 percent this week,” Duque said.

“We are monitoring if the downtrend continues and if we can then lower the Alert Level from 4 to 3 in the National Capital Region,” he added.

Metro Manila was placed under Alert Level 4 on Sept. 16 under a pilot implementation of a new quarantine classification system.

For her part, DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Metro Manila may see a decrease of as low as 1,000 in the average daily new cases by Nov. 15 if the region maintains the downward trend in its case count.

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“If we will look at the daily cases, we will be averaging about 1,100 cases by November 15 here in the National Capital Region,” she said.

“If this continues and we further control the transmission of the virus, we hope that by Christmastime we would see an easing of restrictions,” Vergeire said.

Vergeire said a majority of the regions are showing a negative two-week growth rate in terms of reported COVID-19 cases, including Metro Manila.

However, some areas’ case classification remains at high risk, specifically the Cordillera region, Cagayan Valley, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Caraga.

She also noted that while cases and admissions are decreasing in Metro Manila, decongestion in hospitals would not be instantaneous because the recovery period among the patients could last up to 21 days or more, especially 

DOH… for those in the intensive care unit.

Vergeire reported that some hospitals in Metro Manila are still full and the DOH continues to assist them in any way possible to augment their capacity.

“This is not a point where we get complacent. We need to remain vigilant and protect ourselves so that we can sustain this downward trend in cases,” she said.

The country on Saturday logged 11,010 new infections, pushing the nationwide tally to 2,654,450.

Active cases stood at 106,558 as 22,529 new recoveries were recorded.

The government has already started easing further travel restrictions under Alert Level 4, shortening the quarantine period for incoming passengers who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 starting Oct. 8 and allowing minors aged 12 to 17 and seniors over 65 years old to travel in areas under the general community and modified community quarantine by Oct. 15.

Fully vaccinated travelers from “green” or “yellow” list countries need only to undergo facility-based quarantine until the release of their negative COVID-19 swab test results, which will be taken on their fifth day.

On the other hand, unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, or individuals whose vaccination status cannot be independently verified or confirmed as valid or authentic by the authorities coming from “green” or “yellow” list will be required to undergo facility-based quarantine until the release of their RT-PCR testing taken on the seventh day.

They will then be required to undergo home quarantine until their 14th day, with the day of arrival as their first day.

In the case of foreign nationals, they will be required to secure their own pre-booked accommodation of at least six days for the fully vaccinated; and at least eight days for the unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, or individuals whose vaccination status cannot be independently confirmed as valid or authentic by our authorities coming from “green” or “yellow” list

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