The Philippines would be “the next India” if a hard lockdown is not imposed on the National Capital Region (NCR), the chief implementor of the COVID-19 National Task Force warned lawmakers Wednesday.
More than 400,000 people died as the Delta variant of COVID-19 ravaged India earlier this year.
Speaking to the House committee on health, Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. emphasized the need to disrupt the spread of the virus to ensure the country’s economic growth towards the end of the year.
“We also consulted the business sector. They said if we do not do something to disrupt the transmission, we will not be able to recover anymore during the fourth quarter” he said.
Independent researchers tracking the pandemic said the Philippines could have as many as 2,000 infections of the highly contagious Delta variant.
The OCTA Research Group said they based their projection on the current genome sequencing abilities of the country, which only accounts for 100 samples per day out of 8,000 COVID-19 cases.
This means this is only less than 2 percent of the country’s total number of virus infections, he said.
“What we are really showing is the percentage of Delta variants in the samples but if this percentage were applied to the entire number of cases this is what we would see,” OCTA’s Guido David said in an online forum hosted by the Federation Of Filipino Chinese Chambers Of Commerce & Industry, Inc.
“As of the latest data, we see 26 percent of cases sampled were the Delta variant and if that were the case that could be as many as 2,000 cases of Delta variant in the whole Philippines,” he added.
“This is just a projection based on the sampling. There is a fairly wide range of sampling error here but this is what is possible,” he said.
David said, due to its high infection rate, the Delta variant could also become a “strong replacement factor” for other variants.
“The relevance here is that the Delta variant has a strong replacement factor, meaning it tends to replace other variants because it is more infectious, 50 percent more infectious compared to the previous variants,” David said.
The Philippines has registered 1,856 Alpha cases, 2,146 Beta cases and 216 Delta cases.
Earlier, the Department of Health (DOH) said the highly contagious Delta variant could be contributing to the surge in COVID-19 cases.
On Wednesday, it said at least nine cities in Metro Manila have recorded at least one case of the Delta variant.
“Nine out of the 17 cities in NCR are with Delta variant as of Aug. 1,” DOH spokesperson and Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a Palace briefing.
These cities and the number of Delta variant cases are: Malabon, 4 cases; Makati, 3 cases; San Juan, 2 cases; Las Piñas, 14 cases; Valenzuela, 1 case; Pasig, 6 cases; Mandaluyong, 2 cases; Manila, 12 cases; and, Caloocan, 4 cases.
Vergeire also said the DOH is seeking higher community quarantine levels as a preemptive measure against the Delta variant after recording an increase in COVID-19 cases all over the country.
While the entire country’s risk classification remains at “moderate,” the National Capital Region (NCR) and NCR Plus areas “are showing a steep increase, while the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao [are] exhibiting slight increase in cases,” she said.
Vergeire said the NCR averaged 1,535 new cases per day from July 27 to Aug. 2, 65 percent higher than the week before.
Pateros and Malabon were classified as critical-risk areas due to their high moving two-week case growth rate and moving average daily attack rate (ADAR).
All other cities in Metro Manila were classified as high-risk due to their high ADAR, except for Marikina and Caloocan.
Intensive care units (ICU) in Las Piñas City are nearly full, while Pateros and Malabon are already at “critical risk,” she said. ICU utilization rate was highest in Las Piñas at 86 percent, followed by Muntinlupa at 72 percent and Quezon City at 71 percent.
The ICU occupancy rate was in the moderate- to low-risk zone in all other cities.
Metro Manila was again classified as a high-risk area for COVID-19, the DOH said.
Vergeire said “the impact of the Delta variant is now observed nationally” with half of provinces and cities already seeing an increase in cases and healthcare utilization.
DOH data also showed that cases in Metro Manila grew by 85 percent in the last two weeks while the region logged a high average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 8.96 cases per 100,000 population.
Despite this, Metro Manila’s health care utilization rate remained in the safe zone at 46.52 percent along with the intensive care unit (ICU) bed occupancy rate at 54.82 percent.
Other areas flagged as high risk by the DOH due to their high ADAR and two-week case growth rate were Central Visayas, Ilocos region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera region, and Northern Mindanao.
The Philippines’ two-week case growth rate also rose to 29 percent during July 20 to August 2 from negative 7 percent during July 6 to 19.
“Given ongoing Delta VOC (variant of concern) transmission, we need to immediately address observed case increases, closely monitor healthcare utilization, and consider implementing higher community quarantine [levels],” Vergeire said.
The DOH urged all localities to increase the capacity of their health care system even if their utilization rate has remained low.
A strict lockdown begins on Aug. 6 and will last until Aug. 20 in Metro Manila.
Meanwhile, data from the National Vaccination Operations Center as of Aug 1 showed that 48.55 percent or 4.7 million out of more than 9.6 million adults in Metro Manila have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
A total of 3,471,666 people in the capital region have been fully vaccinated.
As of Aug. 2, Metro Manila registered the most number of new cases at 2,074, followed by Calabarzon, Central Visayas, Central Luzon and Western Visayas.
Cavite, Laguna, Quezon City, Bulacan Cebu City, and Bohol are the top contributors of new COVID-19 cases in the country.
Of the 21 areas flagged due to moderate-high risk case classification, 11 had Delta variant carriers, Vergeire said.
The Philippine General Hospital (PGH) in Manila on Tuesday said it has already reached full capacity in its COVID-19 intensive care units (ICU) for children, who cannot yet be inoculated against the disease.
PGH spokesman Dr. Jonas del Rosario said that with the threat of Delta variant cases, they are treating more kids infected with the coronavirus disease.
“The Delta variant is more contagious, so we are seeing more pediatric patients getting COVID-19,” said Del Rosario.
Del Rosario said PGH, which is also a COVID-19 referral center, recorded 150 COVID-19 patients in one day, their highest in the last two months.
The COVID-19 vaccination of health workers, senior citizens, people with comorbidities, and other essential workers began in March.
The DOH has said it aims to vaccinate from 70 percent to 80 percent of the country’s 109 million people.
In an online forum, Health Undersecretary Myrna Cabotaje said the proposal to raise this target would mean that those under 18 years old would also be vaccinated against COVID-19.
The Philippines logged 7,342 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, bringing the total number of infections to 1,619,824.
Ninety new deaths brought the COVID-19 death toll to 28,231.
The DOH also reported 7,285 persons who recently recovered, bringing the total recoveries to 1,528,422.
There were 63,171 active cases, of which 94.1 percent were mild, 1.3 percent were asymptomatic, 1.2 percent were critical, 2 percent were severe, and 1.42 percent were moderate.
Nationwide, 61 percent of the ICU beds, 53 percent of the isolation beds, 52 percent of the ward beds, and 41 percent of the ventilators, were in use.
In Metro Manila, 59 percent of the ICU beds, 52 percent of the isolation beds, 48 percent of the ward beds, and 42 percent of the ventilators, were in use.
In other developments:
* Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra on Wednesday said he would order the National Bureau of Investigation to coordinate with he Philippine National Police and the Department of Trade and Industry in running after and prosecuting hoarders of oxygen tanks and medical supplies.
He cited reports indicating that oxygen tanks and other medical supplies were being hoarded and possibly overpriced in Cebu.
* Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez, on Wednesday assured the public of enough supply of oxygen and oxygen cylinders amidst rising demand due to the surge of COVID-19 cases, especially in Cebu City. “The current industry capacity is about three times more than the current demand. There is a surplus from the producer’s side. The current capacity surplus includes both the medical and industrial oxygen capacity, and the latter can also be allocated to produce medical oxygen if and when necessary,” Lopez said.