Sixteen politicians and business executives plan to run for president in 2022, the next general elections after 2016, when the six-year term of President Rodrigo Duterte ends, according to research firm BluPrint.PH.
The research company and its Singapore-based partner on Data Mining and Artificial Intelligence revealed the 16 names were those of Vice President Leni Robredo, Senators Manny Pacquiao, Christopher Go, Risa Hontiveros, Grace Poe, and businessman Ramon Ang.
Human rights lawyer Chel Diokno is being mentioned frequently along with Davao mayor Sara Duterte, former House Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano, senator Vicente Tito Sotto III, Cavite governor Jonvic Remulla, Senator Pia Cayetano, former senators Bongbong Marcos and Manuel Villar, Rep.Lucy Torres- Gomez of the 4th district of Leyte and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno.
In a statement, BluPrint.PH said the sentiment analysis was based on the social media data extracted from June 1, 2020, to November 30, 2020 scanning a total of 344,761,479 data points or Facebook engagement such as likes, shares, reactions, and comments.
“If we go by our big data metrics, about 16 names are frequently being mentioned on social media, particularly Facebook, as potential presidential candidates,” said Eero Brillantes, Chief Executive Officer of BluPrint.PH.
“All have paths to the presidency. Social media networking activities alone through Facebook can generate 22 percent-35 percent of the votes in 2022,” he said.
He said there were four components to a serious campaign, namely: ground game, the air war through mainstream media, network engineering (social media), and big data for decision support.
Brillantes said the 16 names who have potential chances in presidential elections have at least one of these components, but none had all the four components.
“Social media will be a major battleground at 22 percent-35 percent potential votes,” said Brillantes.
The ground game and mainstream media through advertising and public relations will account for the 65 percent-78 percent of vote generational potential.
Big Data will be crucial in determining the right messaging and priority spending across many segments of the electorate, he said.
Blueprint.PH also conducted tandem engagement analysis of potential presidential candidates based on the social media and traditional media of 16 personalities.
On the other hand, the PAHAYAG End-of-the-Year survey, an independent and non-commissioned poll done by PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. covering the period of December 3-9, 2020, said four politicians were in a four-way tie for the top spot in presidential predisposition.
It said Sara Duterte-Carpio, Bongbong Marcos, Isko Domagoso, and Leni Robredo were in the four-way tie for the top spot – the first tier ranging from 10 percent to 15 percent support.
Occupying the second tier (10 percent and below) are Manny Pacquiao, Grace Poe, and Tito Sotto. No clear frontrunner can be identified as yet, it said.
The PAHAYAG sampling survey consisted of 1500 respondents drawn from a research panel of approximately 100,000 Filipinos maintained by a Singapore-based firm, with respondents restricted to registered voters.
Parameters based on respondent age and location were also considered in the sample formulation in order for the resulting sample to conform more closely to the features of the voting population as defined by statistics from the COMELEC, it said.
The reading was divided by super regions: NCR, Northern and Central Luzon (NCL), Southern Luzon (SL), Visayas (VIS), and Mindanao (MIN).
On the predisposition module of PAHAYAG-EOY, a total of 20 names were fielded for presidential predisposition, with undecided and none from the list options provided to respondents. There is no dominant figure as yet but there appears to be tiers of support from the respondents.
On the other hand, 18 names were in the list for the vice presidential predisposition, with Sara Duterte and Isko Domagoso virtually tied for the top spot at 17 percent and 16 percent respectively.
Though they are tied, the level of support is not dominant at this time. Trailing behind are Grace Poe, Manny Pacquiao, Bong Go and Tito Sotto with support averaging at 10 percent.
Given that the nominal leaders have relatively low shares, no clear frontrunner can be identified.
For the Senate, a total of 68 names were listed.
Willie Ong, Lucy Torres, and Vilma Santos-Recto are in the Top 12, with Willie Ong posting a choice rate of ~56 percent.
Nine modules were analyzed in this run: state of the economy and economic prospects, assessment of COVID-19 responses, national issues, leadership scorecard, emotional quotient of leaders, media consumption habits and responses to media campaigns, predisposition, travel likelihood and blended learning.
The last PAHAYAG survey was done in August 2020, right after the State of the Nation Address. PUBLiCUS has been doing commissioned surveys as early as 2007 and launched its PAHAYAG brand in 2017 as its CSR, addressing the need for timely, relevant, and actionable information.
PUBLiCUS likewise introduced in its PAHAYAG surveys new metrics: Emotional Quotient (or the Love, Care and Solidarity Index), electoral predisposition instead of preference since there are no official list of candidates yet, as well as household sentiments to complement existing optimism metrics.
PUBLiCUS also employs its proprietary software (CAPI instead of PAPI) to facilitate the rapid release of results. PUBLiCUS remains committed to ensuring data integrity and the quality of our analytical outputs.
PUBLiCUS currently uses a research panel (i.e. individuals recruited to answer surveys) instead of face-to-face due to the restrictions imposed by COVID-19 and the lockdowns.