As political tensions between the Marcos and Duterte camps intensify ahead of the midterm elections, nearly four in 10 Filipino adults (36%) said they consider themselves ‘pro-Marcos,’ according to the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) pre-election survey conducted by OCTA Research.
As for the remaining numbers, survey results revealed that loyalties are divided among ‘pro-Duterte’ supporters (18%), independents (26%), and those who remain undecided (12%).
Meanwhile, only 8% of Filipinos align with the opposition, which includes figures such as former Vice President Leni Robredo, the Liberal Party, and their allied movements.
The respondents were asked: “Alin sa sumusunod ang pinaka-naglalarawan ng sinusuportahan ninyo sa pulitika? (Which of the following best describes what you support in politics?)”
The data showed that ‘pro-Marcos’ supporters are most concentrated in the National Capital Region (NCR) and the Visayas with 39% and 37%, respectively.
Balance Luzon, which includes Marcos’ bailiwick and so-called ‘Solid North’ registered the highest share at 47%.
However, in Mindanao, where the Duterte political dynasty holds a strong influence, only 9% identify as ‘pro-Marcos.’ Support for the Duterte camp remains strongest in Mindanao, where 63% said they are ‘pro-Duterte.’
‘Pro-Duterte’ are the lowest in Metro Manila and Balance Luzon with only 5% and 2% supporters respectively. Visayas has 12% Duterte supporters.
The survey highlighted a 19-percent increase in ‘pro-Duterte’ supporters among Class E respondents, rising from 21% in the third quarter of 2024 to 41% in the latest poll.
“This surge indicates a strong resurgence of pro-Duterte support in the first quarter of 2025, reversing the previously observed downward trend,” OCTA Research said.
Meanwhile, support for the opposition saw a three-percent increase in Balance Luzon compared to August 2024. Overall, it saw a 1% increase from 7% in the third quarter of 2024.
‘Pro-Opposition’ was strongest in Western Visayas at 26%. Across other regions, support remained below 25%, ranging from 0 to 21% of adult Filipinos.
Earlier, pre-election surveys have shown a similar trend, with Marcos-backed senatorial candidates continuing to lead in voter preference.
At least nine out of 12 Senate seats are currently dominated by the Marcos-aligned slate, “Alyansa Para Sa Bagong Pilipinas.”
The latest OCTA Research survey was conducted from January 25 to 31, 2024 with 1,200 respondents, and a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.