The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is expected to come up with an El Niño Alert starting next month as the likelihood of the weather phenomenon lasting from June until the first quarter of 2024 has increased.
This developed as the National Water Resources Board on Saturday told the public to begin conserving water and use it correctly amid El Niño, which is characterized by below-normal rainfall that can lead to dry spells and drought.
Meanwhile, water service interruptions will be experienced in several parts of Caloocan and Quezon City from April 24 to May 1 due to network maintenance, the Maynilad Water Services, Inc. announced on Saturday.
“We are expecting by next month, May, we will raise the El Niño ‘Watch’ status to ‘Alert’ status,” said PAGASA Climate Impact Assessment and Application Section Climatology and Agrometeorology Division chief Marcelino Villafuerte at a news forum.
Villafuerte said an El Niño Alert status meant there was a 70 percent chance that the dry spell phenomenon would occur within the next two months.
“When it’s already the onset of El Niño we call it ‘Advisory,” he said.
PAGASA earlier said that from a 55-percent probability, the chances for an El Niño between June and August have increased to 80 percent.
The probability of El Niño between November and January 2024 also rose to about 87 percent.
The weather bureau has said El Niño’s possible impacts in some areas of the country are drought or dry spell, but this will be felt towards the last quarter.
Villafuerte in the news forum maintained that “by July, August, and September, there is an 80 percent chance that El Niño will happen.”
During these months the El Niño would develop and the frequency of rains occurring would be “above normal” before the dry spell begins in October, November, December, he added.
“Then by January, February, March, April, this is when we expect its full impact,” Villafuerte said.
At the same forum, NWRB Executive Director Sevillo David Jr. said at present, the water level in Angat Dam, which is the major source of water in Metro Manila, is at 196.5 meters or “within operating level.”
The dam’s minimum operating level, he noted, is at 180 meters.
With PAGASA’s projections, David said the public should implement conservation practices as early as now to mitigate the dry weather’s impact.
Conserving water, he said, could also help energy supply owing to the country’s hydropower plants.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had called for the creation of a team that would focus on mitigating the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
The El Niño phenomenon was characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below normal rainfall.