Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said Thursday the absence of face-to-face learning for a year due to the pandemic will cost the economy P11 trillion over the next 40 years.
Chua presented the estimate in a Senate hearing as the Commission on Higher Education said it submitted a proposal to President Rodrigo Duterte to allow limited face-to-face classes in modified general community quarantine (MCGQ) areas and include other courses aside from health allied programs.
CHED chairman Prospero De Vera III told House members the proposal was already endorsed by the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Infectious Diseases but is still awaiting the President’s approval.
De Vera is seeking to expand face-to-face classes for the following courses in MGCQ areas: engineering, hospitality/hotel and restaurant management, tourism and travel management, marine engineering, and marine transportation.
“Some courses that need hands-on experience will be able to continue face-to-face,” said De Vera, warning that the “competency” of graduates of these courses might be “questioned” if they continue without face-to-face classes.
For his part, Chua said the lack of face-to-face classes would limit the learning abilities of students and that would have a permanent effect over the lifespan of the students while they are in the labor force.
“With the best data that we have, we have an estimate that productivity loss over the next 40 years is going to be P11 trillion for the one year where we had no face-to-face classes,” he added.
Chua cited a number of studies globally that measured the impact of the pandemic on productivity.
“This is not only in the Philippines. It is in the US, India. So for instance, there is an ADB [Asian Development Bank] study [showing] that each year of no schooling translates to 10 percent lower permanent wages in the future,” Chua said.
He said there was also a study in the US showing that online learning was just equivalent to 52 percent of actual learning.
“In the Philippines, you have to adjust that. These are the inputs that led us to compute the P11-trillion less productivity,” Chua said.
Chua said the National Economic and Development Authority actually discussed this with ADB and there were some assumption differences.
Chua said the bank did not discuss inflation assumptions, adding the amount might be much bigger.
“Unfortunately every time we try to start the pilot, there is a new surge [of COVID cases]… We have the plans but it was deferred twice but we are still keen to pilot as soon as we can once this surge is over and in less risky areas,” Chua said.
Last month, the task force said it would make a fresh bid to convince President Rodrigo Duterte to allow the holding of physical classes in areas with a low risk of widespread COVID-19 infections.
Presidential Spokesman Harry Roque earlier said some members of the IATF had approved “in principle” the preparation of a presentation to lay out why face-to-face classes can now be conducted.