Approximately 90 percent of Filipinos may already have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, an epidemiologist said Tuesday.
This is based on modeling estimates conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, according to Dr. John Wong.
“If you look at the Philippines, we’re about 90 percent of the population infected,” Wong said in a virtual town hall forum.
Wong, founder and senior technical adviser of health research institution EpiMetrics Inc., disclosed this while discussing about COVID-19 endemicity.
Based on IHME estimates, 76 percent of the world’s population had been infected with COVID-19, he said. “The only reason we don’t see that many cases in our case counts is that they also estimated only about 33 percent of infections are detected,” Wong said.
While the country’s immunity wall from both natural infections and immunizations is high, he said infection-induced immunity is unreliable.
To date, the Philippines’ primary series vaccination rate is only at 64 percent, Wong also said. The focus now, Wong said, should be on vaccinating the unvaccinated.
The Department of Health (DOH) meanwhile said the Philippines’ new COVID-19 infections may decrease to as low as around 429 daily by December if minimum public health standards will be continuously complied with,
Based on FASSSTER national projections, DOH Epidemiology Bureau Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman said that daily and active COVID-19 cases may continuously decline next month if the current pandemic scenario and observance to heath protocols would remain by then.
However, De Guzman had warned that infections may go as high as 2,294 by the end of December if people would reduce compliance to the minimum health standards, such as masking and social distancing.
“If our MPHS compliance further decreases, our daily cases will actually, may probably range from 1,140 to as high 2,294 by the end of December, and our active cases may also reach a total of as of December,” she said.
De Guzman said based on AuTuMN projections in the National Capital Region (NCR), hospital utilization will not increase if the vaccination rate is further improved and there are no variants of concern that will enter the country.
She also explained that COVID-19 case spikes are indeed expected to occur with increased mobility, social gatherings, and eased restrictions, but these should not lead to deaths, especially among the vulnerable population.
Based on DOH’s latest data, 73.5 million Filipinos are now fully vaccinated, while 20.7 million have received booster shots.
Even as the national government already approved the voluntary face mask use, health experts continuously remind the public of the benefits masking could provide, especially with the detection of the Omicron BQ.1, a sublineage of the highly transmissible Omicron BA.5 subvariant.
Infectious diseases expert Dr. Rontgene Solante said that with the upcoming holiday season, people, particularly the senior citizens and people with comorbidities, should continue wearing their face masks, on top of getting vaccinated and boosted, to help protect themselves against the severe diseases brought by a COVID-19 infection.
The DOH reported on Friday that 14 cases of BQ.1 have been detected based on the latest genome sequencing of UP-Philippine Genome Center, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, and San Lazaro Hospital from October 28 to November 18.
Cases of COVID-19 in the country grew by 8,032 more from November 21 to 26, 2022, according to DOH. This represented an average of 1,147 daily cases for the said week, or 0.3% higher than the cases registered from November 14 to 20.