Binay tops new survey

Veep picked in 2-, 3- and 4-way race, poll finds

VICE President Jejomar Binay would be the runaway winner in five-way, four-way and two-way fight scenarios in the 2016 presidential race, the latest survey of Laylo Research Strategies showed.

Binay also recorded the best vote commitment with 66 percent of his voters saying they will no longer change their minds, the same survey showed.

The survey, commissioned by concerned big businessmen, was conducted from Nov. 26 to Dec. 5, 2014, among 1,200 respondents nationwide.

The survey was led by pollster Pedro “Junnie” Laylo Jr., and it affirmed the last quarter Pulse Asia “rider” survey that also showed Binay besting other potential rivals in the four-way and two-way fights and the December Social Weather Stations survey that showed Binay was the “best leader” to replace President Aquino in 2016 as against Senator Grace Poe and Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas II.

Meanwhile, the Aquino administration retained its “good” satisfaction rating in the fourth quarter of 2014, a recent survey taken by pollster Social Weather Stations showed.

The government received a net satisfaction rating of +34 (58 percent satisfied, 24 percent dissatisfied, and 17 percent ambivalent), which was a point below its +35 score in the third quarter.

Geographically, the administration’s net satisfaction rating fell to “moderate” from “good” in Metro Manila, stayed “good” in the Visayas and Mindanao, and rose to “good” from “moderate” in Balance Luzon.

“We take cognizance of the latest survey of the SWS which shows a net satisfaction rating of +34 for the general performance of the administration,” Communications Secretary Herminio Coloma Jr. said.

“In the remaining months of the administration, we shall continue to ramp up the implementation of vital plans, activities and programs in order to achieve our goals of inclusive growth especially in the areas of peace and order, job security and livelihood, strengthening the purchasing power of consumers and providing justice to the victims of the Maguindanao massacre.”

Satisfaction with the administration remained “good” in all the socio-economic classes even as net score fell six points among the Class ABC.

The government was also rated on several issues: “good” ratings for helping victims of disasters, defending the country’s territorial rights, providing enough supply of electricity, promoting the welfare of Filipino workers abroad, foreign relations, helping the poor, and preparing for climate change; “moderate” ratings for reconciliation with the communist rebels, providing jobs, reconciliation with Muslim rebels, and fighting terrorism; “neutral” ratings for eradicating graft and corruption, fighting crime, ensuring oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices, and ensuring that no family will ever be hungry; “poor” rating for fighting inflation and - “bad” rating for resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice.

The SWS poll was taken from  Nov. 27 to Dec. 1 among 1,800 adults.

The survey had sampling error margins of ±2 percent for national percentages, ±6 percent each for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon and Mindanao, and ±3 percent for the Visayas.

In the two-way scenario between Binay and Poe, the Laylo survey showed Binay garnering 42 percent as opposed to Poe’s 33 percent with 24 percent of the respondents remaining undecided.

In the Binay versus Roxas scenario, the margin had widened to a 29-point lead with Binay obtaining 45 percent, Roxas 16 percent with a high 39 percent saying they were undecided compared to the last quarter Pulse survey results, which had Binay leading by 10 points at 38 percent and Roxas obtaining 28 percent.

The five-cornered fight showed Binay taking the lead with 36 percent, Poe with 24 percent, Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago with 16 percent, Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada with 12 percent, and Roxas placing last with 10 percent. Only two percent remained undecided.

Roxas also placed last in the four-way scenario, gaining one percent to 11 percent if Estrada backed out and Binay still grabbing the lead at 39 percent. Poe took the second slot at 26 percent and Santiago third at 17 percent. At least 7 percent of the respondents remained undecided.

In an estimated 72-percent to 79-percent voter turnout, the 1,200 respondents from 71 provinces nationwide had an estimated 39.04 million likely voters at + or – 3-percent error margins.

The 1,200 respondents were equally divided into 300 from the National Capital Region, 300 from Balance Luzon [145 from North and Central Luzon and 155 from South Luzon and Bicol], 300 from the Visayas and another 300 from Mindanao.

Metro Manila had the least voter turnout at 69 percent with likely voters of 4.14 million. Balance Luzon delivered the highest estimated likely voters at 17.73 million.

Mindanao, the opposition bailiwick, had the most Binay voters, but in the urban areas Binay and Poe were tied for the lead, the Laylo survey showed.

Binay is from the Northern Luzon region while Poe hails from Metro Manila.

The Visayas has estimated 8.5 million likely voters and Mindanao 8.65 million voters.

The Visayas had the least Binay voters because of the significantly higher number of votes for Roxas, who hails from Aklan, and “some votes” for Santiago and “a few votes” for Senate President Franklin Drilon, who are both from Iloilo.

The respondents gave “high vote commitments” for their prospective presidential candidates except for Roxas.

In Binay’s case, some 66 percent said they will no longer change their minds in voting for him while 34 percent said they will still change their minds.

The vote commitment conversion rate for Roxas showed 49 percent said they will no longer change their minds while 51 percent said they willstill change their minds.

Some 57 percent of Poe’s voters said they will no longer change their minds while 43 percent said they will still change their minds.

Santiago had 62 percent saying they will not change their minds while 38 percent said they will still change their minds.

Estrada had 55 percent of the voters sticking with him while 45 percent said they will still change their minds.

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