As the election campaign kicked off its first month, only 15 party-lists—roughly 10% of the 155 vying for congressional seats—are projected to secure seats in the 2025 elections if voting were held today, according to OCTA Research’s Tugon ng Masa (TNM) nationwide survey.
Interestingly, the survey results suggest that the majority of party-list frontrunners are backed by political dynasties.
The survey results indicate that three party-lists are on track to win the maximum three seats allowed under the Party-List System Act (Republic Act No. 7941): ACT-CIS with 6.46%, 4PS with 5.62%, and DUTERTE YOUTH with 3.95%.
Under the law, a party-list that receives at least 2% of the national vote is entitled to one seat in Congress, with an extra seat given for every additional 2% gained, capped at a maximum of three seats.
Meanwhile, 12 other party-lists, each surpassing the 2% vote threshold, are projected to win at least two seats in the House of Representatives. FPJ PANDAY BAYANIHAN ranks fourth with 3.84%, followed by TINGOG in fifth place with 3.63%.
USWAG ILONGGO holds the sixth spot with 3.49%, while GP (Galing sa Puso) follows closely in seventh place at 3.43%. AKO BICOL, ABANG LINGKOD, and 4K round out the top ten, registering 2.90%, 2.38%, and 2.34%, respectively.
For the 11th to 15th spots, SENIOR CITIZENS and AGAP both garnered 2.27%, AGIMAT secured 2.25%, MALASAKIT AT BAYANIHAN obtained 2.17%, and PPP registered exactly 2%.
The survey, conducted from January 25 to 31, 2025, just before the official campaign period began in the second week of February, polled 1,200 respondents and has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.
Earlier, election watchdog Kontra Daya reported that 55.13% of party-list groups vying for seats in the 2025 polls “do not represent the marginalized and underrepresented.”
The group pointed out that the majority of the frontrunners have ties to political dynasties, big businesses, or the police and military.
“Political dynasties appear to dominate 4PS (Abalos), ACT-CIS (Tulfo and Yap), FPJ Bantay Bayan (Poe Llamanzares with Dolor and Paton families) and Tingog Sinirangan (Romualdez). Big business interests are apparent in Ako Bicol (Sunwest) and TGP (Teravera; contractor of DPWH projects). Duterte Youth has military connections which explains its track record for red- tagging,” Kontra Daya said in a statement.
“Tingog Sinirangan deserves close scrutiny for being linked with the Romualdez clan to which the current House Speaker belongs. ACT-CIS is also an interesting case study of how the Tulfo political clan has managed to invade not just the Senate but also the House of Representatives, aside from an appointed Cabinet position,” it added.
Editor’s Note: This is an updated article. Originally posted with the headline “Dynasty-backed party-lists lead 2025 pre-election polls—OCTA survey.”