The independent OCTA Research Group said Thursday the risk was "quite low" for another wave of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila even as it warned of a possible "re-surge" of the Delta variant if the booster shots are delayed.
“As we continue to vaccinate our kababayans, we must prepare to administer boosters as our population immunity will wane after six to eight months,” OCTA fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said in a briefing.
“Otherwise the risk for Delta re-surge will increase,” he added.
In Metro Manila, the number of daily virus cases has declined to an average of 400 infections following a Delta variant surge, OCTA Research fellow Prof. Guido David.
"What we're seeing is the risk is at a level that is quite low. The risk of a resurgence is not as significant," he said.
"We can always calibrate our strategy when we see a spike in cases.
Cases are down, and as long as people are mindful of their health protocols, we’re not seeing a significant threat in a rise in cases."
Metro Manila, which shifted to Alert Level 2 from Alert Level 3 on Nov. 5, remains under "low risk" classification for virus cases, the Department of Health said earlier this week.
The Philippine College of Physicians had warned the government against easing quarantine restrictions too quickly as transport officials sought to increase passenger capacity of public utility vehicles ahead of the holidays.
With the shift to Alert Level 2, Metro Manila has allowed more businesses to reopen with up to 50 percent indoor capacity for fully vaccinated individuals and 70 percent for outdoor dining.
COVID positivity rate in the National Capital Region has decreased to 3 percent, meeting the 5 percent recommendation of the World Health Organization, David said.
OCTA fellow Dr. David said NCR had recorded an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 2.58 and a reproduction number of 0.37.
“I think we might not have reached 3 percent in the past. I have to double-check but based on what I looked at, preliminary, I did not find that we reached 3 percent in the NCR before now, before this week,” David said.
“Although WHO recommends 5 percent or lower, CDC or some other institutions actually recommend 3 percent or lower. So we are at that level,” he added, referring to the United States' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Meanwhile, OCTA Group said the number of Filipinos unwilling to get vaccinated was rising.
Of 1,200 adult Filipino respondents in their survey between Sept 11 and 16, some 22 percent said they were unwilling to get vaccinated, a 6 percent increase from the 16 percent in July who shared the same sentiment.
"Majority of Filipinos still want to get themselves vaccinated but the number of people who are unwilling to get vaccinated has also increased from quarter 2 to quarter 3," Prof. Ranjit Rye said.
Some 61 percent said they are willing to be vaccinated or have already been inoculated, the study found.
Unwillingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines is highest in the Visayasat 32 percent, followed by Balanced Luzon at 24 percent, Mindanao at 19 percent, and Metro Manila at 5 percent.
The number of people willing to get vaccinated was highest in Metro Manila at 93 percent, Mindanao at 71 percent, Balanced Luzon at 51 percent, and Visayas at 47 percent.
The primary reasons behind the public's vaccine hesitancy are the following: they are unsure if it is safe (65 percent); they are unsure if it is effective (14 percent); they have preexisting conditions (9 percent); they believe it is not needed to combat COVID-19 (7 percent); they believe vaccination can result in death (5 percent); they fear injection (4 percent); and they do not leave the house or believe they do not need the vaccine (3 percent)
"There is a great need for an information drive to be initiated by the government and supported by the private sector to reduce hesitancy as far as the vaccine is concerned. A lot of people are misinformed or uninformed," Rye said.
The Philippines has already fully vaccinated 30.5 million individuals, while 36.3 million have received an initial dose as of Wednesday.