The Philippine government and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will review a 2004 study on the impact of a major earthquake on the West Valley Fault as the population in Metro Manila has increased since then.
Dr. Teresito Bacolcol, director of the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), said the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction study outlines the risk assessment of a potential 7.2-magnitude quake from the West Valley Fault.
“Next year we will revisit the study. There are already ongoing talks with JICA,” he said in a press briefing.
Bacolcol underscored the need to “revisit” the 20-year-old study, noting that the population in the National Capital Region has grown since then.
The Japan-funded research showed projected Metro Manila may see at least 34,000 deaths and 114,000 injuries should the West Valley Fault generate a 7.2-magnitude quake.
“If it (West Valley Fault) moves, the whole of Metro Manila would experience some Intensity 8 earthquake, and an Intensity 8 (quake) is devastating,” Bacolcol said.
“Around 33,000 fatalities in Metro Manila alone. If you include other provinces, it can go up to 48,000 (deaths),” he added.
According to Bacolcol, the updated version of the study is expected to be completed in two years.
JICA is expected to shoulder the cost of the study while the Philippines will provide the agency with data, he added.
“We are more prepared now than 20-30 years ago,” he said, adding information on social media and regular earthquake drills have helped improve readiness.
