The Philippine government does not expect the ongoing Middle East tensions to significantly affect the country’s economy, based on a multi-agency assessment presented in a recent high-level briefing, according to the Department of Energy (DOE) Officer-in-Charge Sharon Garin.
Garin said Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan led the briefing, outlining various economic indicators that showed minimal impact from the recent conflict between Israel and Iran and its potential regional spillover.
“The trend is going down,” Garin said, referring to oil prices. “Secretary Arsi categorized the effects on several fronts, oil price volatility, OFW (overseas Filipino workers) remittances, and our trade relations, especially with countries like Israel,” she added.
According to Garin, the DEPDev chief emphasized that while the Iran-Israel conflict remains a persistent issue, the potential for broader regional escalation appears to be declining, particularly in light of a fragile but ongoing ceasefire.
“The hope is that the ceasefire lasts longer,” she said, adding that fewer countries seem likely to be drawn into the conflict.
The NEDA presentation included projections on inflation, remittance flows, and trade volumes, as well as implications for the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
While Garin did not provide specific figures, she said Balisacan’s team concluded that the overall economic impact would be “minimal and not alarming,” provided that hostilities do not escalate.
Top officials from across the government were present at the inter-agency meeting, including Foreign Affairs, Finance, Labor, Energy, and Trade secretaries. Finance Secretary Ralph Recto and Labor Secretary Bienvenido Laguesma were among those who joined in the discussion of contingency plans.
“All agencies concerned are closely monitoring the situation,” Garin said.
“For now, the sentiment is one of cautious optimism. If the conflict doesn’t worsen, we expect the economic impact to remain manageable,” she added.
The Philippines relies heavily on overseas remittances, particularly from workers in the Middle East, and imports a significant portion of its oil from the region. As such, any prolonged instability could ripple into domestic inflation and energy security.
Government agencies pledged to remain on alert in the event of sudden developments, and officials said further assessments would be conducted should the regional dynamics shift.