Humans are unlikely to experience significant lifespan gains this century, with growth in life expectancy slowing over the past 30 years in countries with the highest longevity like Japan, a recent U.S. study showed.
The study conducted by a team from the University of Illinois and others, published in the U.S. scientific journal Nature Aging earlier this month, projected that the percentage of people to reach 100 years old by the end of the 21st century will not exceed 15 percent for women and 5 percent for men.
Analyzing data from eight countries with the longest-lived populations, including Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland, as well as in Hong Kong, researchers found that life expectancy increased by an average of 6.5 years from 1990 to 2019.
While the 20th century saw life expectancy increase by three years per decade due to advancements in sanitation and medicine that reduced infant mortality, as well as improved health among middle-aged and older adults, the pace has slowed over the past 30 years or so, according to the study.
Composite mortality schedules, compiled using the lowest mortality rates by age and gender around the world, found that life expectancy for those born in 2019 is 88.68 years for women and 83.17 years for men, with the probability they will survive to 100 years at 13.9 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
In order to see a second wave of radical life extension, in which life expectancy at birth is 110 years, around 70 percent of women would need to survive to age 100, a feat that would require the complete cure or elimination of most current causes of death, according the research team.
“Unless the processes of biological aging can be markedly slowed, radical human life extension is implausible in this century,” the study surmised.
According to Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the average life expectancy among Japanese in 2023 was 87.14 years for women and 81.09 years for men.
The number of people aged 100 or older in Japan was estimated at a record 95,119 in September, with females accounting for 88.3 percent at 83,958, the ministry said.
