OCTA: Reproduction number at 0.50; Adviser eyes shift to Alert Level 2
The COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region has gone down to 0.50, the OCTA Research group said on Saturday, as Metro Manila recorded 2,256 new COVID-19 cases on January 28—the lowest daily number since last December 31, when cases were starting to surge in the NCR.
This was as the Philippines recorded 17,382 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, data from the Department of Health (DOH) showed.
OCTA also noted that the one-week growth rate in new COVID-19 cases in NCR was at minus-69%.
This prompted Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion to say that the COVID-19 alert level in Metro Manila could be downgraded to Alert Level 2 as infections in the big city have decreased.
Citing the OCTA report, Concepcion said on Saturday the country had to start reviving its economy.
“We don’t want our economy to get COVID and we have to revive the economy. And the only way to do that is to start to realize that COVID-19 is here, and it may stay. We will have a rise in infections, it will go down, but we have to live with that. There’s no other choice,” he said.
Concepcion added that OCTA projected that by the first or second week of February, COVID-19 infections in the NCR will decrease.
“We are asking for a downgrade to Alert Level 2 in the NCR,” the adviser said.
Under Alert Level 2, the second-lowest in the alert level system, certain establishments and activities are allowed to operate at 50 percent capacity indoors catering to fully vaccinated adults (and minors, even if unvaccinated) and at 70 percent capacity outdoors.
The reproduction rate, which refers to the number of people infected by one case, was 0.63 in the NCR on Wednesday. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates the transmission of the virus is slowing down.
Meanwhile, the country’s positivity rate was at 33.3 percent, based on samples of 56,447 individuals on Jan. 27, according to the DOH.
“The downward trend has slowed in the past four days but new cases still tracking below Jan 20 projections. Public must continue to comply with health protocols,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Twitter.
Meanwhile, the seven-day positivity rate – which refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested — in the region also went down to 21%.
David said Metro Manila may be placed under moderate risk by January 29. The DOH, however, on Friday said NCR’s risk classification has already dropped to moderate from high risk.
NCR was classified at high risk on January 24.
As for further dropping to low risk, David said this “will depend on how quickly cases decrease below 1,000 per day.”
“The public must continue to strictly comply with health protocols to sustain the downward momentum,” he added.
Meanwhile, Concepcion said the de-escalation of alert levels in other areas of the country may depend on the percentage of the vaccination rate.
“In places in the Visayas and Mindanao, it would depend on the percentage of vaccination rate because in NCR we are over 90% [or] 100% here. So Alert Level 2 is justifiable in NCR,” he added.
The government placed Metro Manila and around 50 other areas under Alert Level 3 from January 16 to 31.
The Philippines has so far tallied a total of 3,528,796 COVID-19 cases, of which 213,587 remain active.
COVID-related deaths increased by 70, resulting in a total of 53,871 fatalities so far. There were 35,382 more recoveries, raising the total number of recuperations to 3,528,796.
The intensive care unit (ICU) bed utilization rate in Metro Manila and nationwide was at 48 percent and 40 percent, respectively.
The DOH also reported that 77 duplicates, including 52 recoveries, were removed from the tally. It also reclassified 24 recoveries into
deaths. The total number did not include data from three laboratories which failed to submit their reports on time.
Cebu City’s COVID-19 reproduction number is at 2.03 as of January 25, OCTA Research said. It was 3.94 the previous week. The city’s positivity rate is at 39%, it added.
“New COVID-19 cases in Cebu City seemed to have peaked and may be on a downward trajectory,” OCTA said.
The group said the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in Cebu City was still very high at 62.27 per day per 100,000 for the period January 22
to 28. ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.
Healthcare utilization meanwhile was at 60%, considered moderate.
“Cebu City’s overall risk level, based on Covidactnow, remained at very high risk. This means the public must continue to comply strictly with public health protocols,” David said.
In a related development, almost 900 employees of Southern Philippines Medical Center tested positive for COVID-19 this month, its medical chief said on Saturday.
SPMC’s Dr. Ricardo Audan confirmed most of the 891 employees who contracted the virus were under home isolation, while only 30 were admitted to the healthcare facility.
“I think it’s the work of omicron. Thankfully, all that were positive were fully vaccinated. And I think, most of the cases also had their booster (shots),” Audan told ABS-CBN News.
Due to staff shortage, Audan said SPMC has reduced the quarantine time for infected employees from 7 days to 5 days.
Hospital management has sought additional manpower from the Department of Health, but Audan said the health agency did not have sufficient staff, too.
Audan said the hospital has written the National Task Force Against COVID-19 chief implementer Carlito Galvez Jr., requesting for health workers from the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Bureau of Fire Protection.
SPMC tapped these agencies during the first COVID-19 surge in the Davao Region last year. But their personnel were recalled when the
situation eased.
Both the ICU and ward bed utilization rates at SPMC have reached 100 percent as all of its 87 ICU beds and 473 ward beds were occupied.
SPMC, one of the country’s largest hospitals, has said it would mainly cater to moderate to critical COVID-19 cases due to the influx of coronavirus patients. The hospital also temporarily closed its outpatient department’s face-to-face services, referring clients instead to its virtual consultation platform.