The two world superpowers—US and China—are on a collision course in the South China Sea. The stakes are high for both and unless a fair, equitable and enduring solution is found, what has been a lingering flashpoint can erupt into a conflagration in the region. The US with its burden of ensuring freedom of navigation and over flights in international waters and airspace has been carrying out sea patrol and sail-by near the man-made islands where China has built military installation including airstrips.
The US is concerned that the Chinese military bases are forward positions to assert its aggressive claim to nearly 90 percent of the South China to the detriment of its neighbors Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam and the Philippines which have conflicting and overlapping claims to parts of the Spratly group of islands with Manila filing a case in The Hague international arbitration court challenging China’s sweeping claim.
Things are coming to a head with the US beefing up its sea patrols and harnessing its biggest aircraft carriers, the USS John C Stennis and USS and the USS Ronald Reagan both of which have a full complement of modern jet fighters on deck. These can respond to any incident or provocation by the Chinese who have escalated their hardline claim in the South China Sea.
All this tinderbox situation needs is a spark like a miscalculation of Chinese and American jet fighters colliding in the sky or a confrontation on the high seas where neither would back off fearing a loss of face if one does. So what was a mere flashpoint in the region could be fanned into a conflagration that would involve other countries and treaty allies.
The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations tried to issue a strong statement last week. It condemned China’s action destabilizing the region. The statement was, however, was thwarted by Beijing who worked on its close trade ties with Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. Without a consensus for a unified communiqué, Asean had to retract a statement that was already prematurely released.
Under this hardening of lines between China and Asean, the US is being drawn into to take sides, a departure from its earlier and repeated
stance that it only wants to protect the freedom of navigation in international sea lanes. If the United Nations cannot enforce the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in, the US might have the added burden of of playing the global policeman. The Hague is expected to issue a ruling in a few weeks which many international observers expect would be unfavorable to China and will uphold the Philippine assertion of a 200-mile exclusive economic zone under the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea that mandates it for countries with coast lines.
There’s a lot riding on Manila winning the case. More than the potential oil, gas and mineral resources under the South China Sea, there is also the livelihood of thousands of Filipino fishermen who have been deprived of their traditional fishing ground in Bajo de Masinloc off Zambales when the Chinese grabbed Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal). While we do not want (nor can we win) a shooting war with our giant neighbor, major treaty ally US might not take any Chinese aggression sitting down. More than the freedom of navigation for the world’s commercial cargo vessels that ply the SCS sea lanes, the US cannot afford to allow a rising China get even stronger if gets hold of the vast resources under the South China Sea. In essence it’s really a geopolitical decision for American action to counterbalance China’s ambition for dominance in the region.
Australia, South Korea and Japan—which has its own territorial dispute with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyo island in the East China Sea—welcome American presence and the US pivot to Asia. Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia are also watching the outcome of the Philippine case in The Hague. Expect these countries to follow suit and file their own respective cases against Beijing if and when Manila scores a legal victory.