Inflation in November moderated to a four-month low of 4.2 percent from 4.6 percent in October on slower increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, the Philippine Statistics Authority said Tuesday.
National statistician and civil registrar general Dennis Mapa said in an online briefing the November print was still higher than the 3.3-percent inflation a year ago. The figure brought the average inflation in the first 11 months to 4.5 percent, still above the target range of 2 percent to 4 percent set by the government for 2021.
“The downtrend in the overall inflation was primarily brought about by the slowdown in the inflation for the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index which slid at 3.9 percent during the month, from 5.3 percent in October 2021,” Mapa said.
He said the lower inflation was also recorded in the indices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 7.5 percent, and furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house at 2.4 percent.
Inflation rates moved faster for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 4.6 percent, and transport at 8.8 percent. The indices for the rest of the commodity groups retained their previous month’s annual growth rates.
Core inflation, which excludes selected food and energy items, likewise, decelerated to 3.3 percent in November from 3.4 percent in the previous month. In November 2020, core inflation was observed at 3.2 percent.
A downtrend was also registered in the inflation for food index at the national level as it slowed down to 4.1 percent in November from 5.6 percent in October. In November 2020, inflation for food was noted at 4.5 percent.
The November inflation of 4.2 percent was slightly higher than the 3.3 percent to 4.1 percent range predicted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas for the month.
“The year-to-date average inflation of 4.5 percent points to a breach of the inflation target for 2021. Nonetheless, average inflation is still projected to fall within the government’s target range in 2022 and 2023 as supply side pressures moderate,” BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said in a statement following the release of the data.
He said the risks to the inflation outlook were on the upside for 2022, but remained broadly balanced for 2023. Upside risks are mainly linked to the potential impact of weather disturbances on the prices of key food items and the possibility of a prolonged recovery of domestic food supply, he said.
“Strong global demand amid persistent supply-chain bottlenecks could also exert further upward pressures on international commodity prices. Meanwhile, potential delays in the lifting of domestic lockdowns as well as the emergence of more transmissible COVId-19 variants could dampen the prospects for both the global and domesstic demand and temper inflationary pressures,” Diokno said.
Diokno said the Monetary Board, which he chairs, will revisit its assessment of the global and domestic economic environment for the monetary policy meeting on Dec. 16, 2021.
Economic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said meat inflation decreased to 10.7 percent from 11.9 percent, while pork inflation decreased to 17.3 percent from 23.3 percent.
The latest data from the Department of Agriculture shows a slower pork import arrival with only a 42 percent utilization of the expanded pork minimum access volume as of end-November. The unreleased inventory of frozen pork is reported at 76,953 metric tons. The slow importation and release of inventory, together with higher demand due to the Christmas season, led to higher average pork prices in November.
“Pork prices continuously went down month-on-month from July to early-October. This means that our policy to temporarily import pork has been effective. However, the uptick in prices in November shows that we need to further ease administrative requirements for the unloading and distribution of stocks to encourage more importation and help bring back pork prices to their pre-African Swine Fever level,” Chua said.