Economic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said Thursday the lowering of COVID-19 alert level status in Metro Manila will have a positive impact on economic growth and employment.
“We did some analysis recently and we tried to measure the weekly improvements on our economic performance every time we move from one alert level to another,” Chua said during the virtual Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines economic forum.
“The de-escalation of NCR to alert level 2 can increase GDP [gross domestic product] by P3.6 billion and employment by 16,000 per week compared to the current classification [alert level 3]. If further de-escalated to alert level 1, an additional P10.3 billion in GDP and 43,000 in employment [versus alert level 2] can be gained per week,” Chua said.
Metro Manila is now under alert level 3, following a substantial decline in new COVID-19 infections.
“These are very clear indicators why opening the economy will have a direct impact on GDP and the people,” Chua said.
He said these were aligned with the 4 percent to 5 percent GDP growth target of the government this year.
The National Capital Region accounted for around 32.3 percent of GDP in 2020.
Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said on Oct. 25 there was a big possibility that the alert level 3 status of NCR would be downgraded further as the average daily attack rate continued to decrease.
Citing data from the Department of Health, Roque said the two-week attack rate within Metro Manila declined to 52 percent, while the average daily attack rate decreased to 9.87 percent, signaling apossible chance of lowering some restrictions.
Roque said the NCR’s COVID-19 bed utilization rate was now at 39 percent and 48 percent of beds dedicated for intensive care were occupied.
He said the lowering of restrictions would further allow the reopening of more businesses in the region.
Meantime, Chua did not give any specific GDP growth projection for the fourth-quarter.
The enhanced community quarantines imposed in August in NCR and adjacent provinces to contain the further spread of the virus had pushed jobless rate up during the month, according to the latest data
from the Philippine Statistics Authority.
Unemployment rate in August increased to a four-month high of 8.1 percent from 6.9 percent in July. The unemployment rate in August was still lower than those reported in January, February and April
this year but was higher than the rates in March (7.1 percent), May and June (7.7 percent) and in July (6.9 percent).
The total number of unemployed persons in August was estimated at 3.88 million individuals 15 years old and over.
The economy contracted by a record 9.6 percent in 2020 amid the pandemic, the worst economic performance since World War 2.
Economic managers believe that accelerating the COVID-19 vaccination
rollout, subsidizing booster shots, managing risks better, and implementing the economic recovery program are the government’s key strategies to strongly bounce back from the devastating impact of the pandemic.