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Friday, March 29, 2024

Analysts expect volatile trading on inflation worries

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Analysts expect volatile trading this week, as global economic headwinds continue to weigh on market sentiments.

Rising inflation and interest rates, coupled with the weakening of the peso against the US dollar, would remain the primary concerns of investors, they said.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Felipe Medalla said in an interview with Bloomberg Television over the weekend another interest rate adjustment of between 50 and 75 basis points could be expected next month to reduce the pressure on the peso and curb rising inflation.

The BSP has raised policy rate by 225 basis points since the start of the year, the most in Southeast Asia.

Online brokerage firm UTrade.com research analyst Neil Andrew Maderaje said in a weekly report the upcoming third-quarter earnings could provide catalysts for the market in the coming weeks.

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The third-quarter earnings of listed firms would reflect the impact of the recent spike in inflation and interest rates on top-line and bottom-line growth.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index dropped 27 points, or 0.46 percent, last week to close at 5,904 on Oct. 14 amid muted trading.

The financial subsector advanced 1.44 percent, while property rose 0.45 percent. Services declined by 2.44 percent; mining and oil by 1.7 percent; holding firms by 1.15 percent; and industrial by 0.85 percent.

Foreign investors were net sellers last week by P310 million, as the average daily turnover went down to P3.7 billion from P4.3 billion a week earlier.

Among the top gainers last week were BDO Unibank Inc., which went up by 6.7 percent to P120; Manila Water Co. Inc., up 6.2 percent to P14.34; and Robinsons Land Corp., up 5 percent to P16.80.

Heavy losers included ABS-CBN Corp., which went down 10.1 percent to P7.03; Monde Nissin Corp., down 8.2 percent to P11.50; and JG Summit Holdings Corp., down by 6.7 percent to P41.05.

Meanwhile, Wall Street stocks also fell last week to conclude a volatile week with markets shrugging off mostly solid bank earnings amid worries over bond yields and rising recession risk.

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all rallied after reporting profits that exceeded analyst expectations even as they highlighted increased economic risks.

But US Treasury bond yields, a proxy for interest rates, climbed higher, rattling investors nervous about more aggressive moves by central banks to counter inflation.

“You’ve got the persistent ramping in Treasury yields that’s just trouncing everything else,” said Art Hogan, analyst at B. Riley Financial.

Friday’s losses resumed the downward trend that had started the week, with an unexpected rally on Thursday giving markets only a brief respite.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 1.3 percent at 29,634.83.

The broad-based S&P 500 slid 2.4 percent to 3,583.07, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 3.1 percent to 10,321.39.

US retail sales in September were virtually unchanged from August at $684 billion, Commerce Department data showed in a report that revealed the drag on consumers from inflation.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan came in slightly better than expected, but the report cautioned of a “bumpy road ahead for consumers” due to uncertainty over inflation and the state of financial markets. With AFP

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