Philippine rice production has largely stalled since 2017, widening the gap between domestic output and rising consumption, according to a new Ateneo de Manila University study that highlights regional disparities and calls for targeted investment to curb import dependence.
In 2022, Filipinos consumed 2.3 million metric tons more rice than the country produced, an 18=percent shortfall that has locked the nation into deeper reliance on imported grain.
Over the ten years leading up to 2023, total production of palay (unmilled rice) grew just 9 percent, from 18.4 million to 20.1 million metric tons, while rice consumption and the population continued to rise.
The research from the John Gokongwei School of Management and Department of Environmental Science at Ateneo de Manila University found that the national output has been largely stagnant due to limited farmland expansion, slow yield growth, climate shocks, and uneven public investment, contradicting the common belief that urbanization is the primary constraint.
The study, which used Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data, uncovered sharp regional contrasts. From 2018 to 2023, rice production dropped by 15 percent in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and 11 percent in Eastern Visayas (Region VIII). Researchers attributed these declines mainly to farmland loss, stagnant yields, repeated typhoons and droughts and farmers diverting land to more profitable crops.
The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) increased its rice output by 40 percent. Cagayan Valley (Region II) and Ilocos (Region I) also posted significant gains of 27 percent and 16 percent respectively.
These successes were linked to better yields, expanding irrigated areas and support programs, including improved seed and farm mechanization. For BARMM, increased rice yields were also linked to dedicated infrastructure investments and improved political stability, which provided a peace dividend.
The study noted that national programs, like the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) under the Rice Tariffication Law (RA 11203), had not been enough to lift productivity in lagging regions.
The Ateneo researchers expressed optimism that local rice production could still grow and help narrow the country’s dependence on imported grain.
They said closing the growing rice deficit would require regionally tailored, climate-resilient strategies, including stronger irrigation systems, better-targeted support services and financial measures that lower farmers’ costs.
The paper, titled Understanding rice production stagnation in the Philippines: Regional evidence and development implications, was published in the open-access journal PLOS One by Henry Bartelet, Alenn Jhulia Prodigalidad, Janelle Dy and Jan Gabriel Manzano.
