The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) on Friday warned against the looming threat of more grid alerts in the coming months as the dry season approaches.
It said this year’s early occurrence was particularly concerning, as similar alerts in previous years were typically issued closer the peak dry months such as April or May.
The ICSC said the first yellow alert in 2024 was declared on April 16, significantly later than this year’s March 5 yellow alert.
It said two primary factors were driving this situation including a surge in electricity demand and a significant reduction in supply due to forced outages of baseload power plants.
The group said the spike in demand was largely attributed to higher-than-normal temperatures as several areas experienced a heat index exceeding 40°C, leading to increased reliance on cooling appliances such as air conditioners and fans.
This increased demand, coupled with supply constraints from the outage of power plants, placed immense pressure on the grid, it said.
It said several baseload power plants were offline due to both planned and unplanned outages.
The ICSC said these incidents were not isolated as unplanned outages were occurring frequently and becoming more noticeable during the dry months.
It said the early issuance of a yellow alert on March 5 signaled “a growing concern.”
“This early alert, despite the low probability, raises an important point: If a yellow alert can occur with only a 2 to 3 percent probability, imagine what will happen in a 70 percent probability scenario in April and May. With conditions like these, we may see even more frequent yellow or red alerts in the Luzon grid as temperatures rise in the coming months,” ICSC said.
ICSC called for the implementation of key measures to mitigate these risks, ensuring strict compliance with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP), timely commissioning of committed capacities and implementing demand-side management programs.
“With 2,232 MW of additional capacity expected to come online until the second quarter of this year, it is crucial to ensure these projects are completed on schedule to bolster supply (includes 1,320 MW from natural gas plants, 491 MW from solar, and 218 MW from wind that is scheduled to be commissioned within the first half of 2025),” it said.
The ICSC is a non-governmental organization that advances climate, energy, and low-carbon solutions to enable fair and climate-resilient development at the national and international levels.