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PH gov’t debt jumped 9.8%to surpass P16t as of end-2024

The outstanding national government (NG) debt jumped 9.8 percent year-on-year to reach P16.05 trillion as of end-2024, the Bureau of Treasury (BTr) said Tuesday.

The 2024 debt level closely aligned with the FY 2025 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing (BESF) projections of P16.06 trillion, reflecting a minimal variance of only 0.03 percent.

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Data showed that on a month-on-month basis, government debt decreased by 0.2 percent from P16.09 trillion registered in November.

The debt-to-GDP ratio of 60.7 percent as of end-December 2024 was slightly above the 60.6 percent revised Medium-Term Fiscal Framework estimate, on account of the lower-than-expected full-year real GDP growth outcome of 5.6 percent.

The BTr said the minimal deviation from the programmed debt underscores the government’s effective cash and debt management strategies, including its proactive management of the level and timing of its external debt issuances amidst volatile exchange rate environment.

The year-on-year increase in the debt stock was attributed to the P1.31-trillion net issuance of debt instruments in line with the government’s deficit program and the P208.73-billion valuation effect of US dollar strengthening, but advantageous third-currency movements significantly trimmed the debt total by P80.74 billion.

Domestic securities comprised the lion’s share of total debt stock at 68.10 percent, while external obligations accounted for the remaining 31.90 percent.

The end-December 2024 domestic debt reached P10.93 trillion, reflecting an increase of 9.1 percent from its level a year ago. The net issuance of domestic securities contributed P905.31 billion to the annual increase, while local currency depreciation increased the peso valuation of outstanding foreign currency-denominated domestic securities by P7.18 billion.

Domestic debt in December was also 0.1 percent higher than in November, as net borrowing added P10.91 billion while the effect of local currency appreciation on the valuation of US dollar-denominated domestic securities tempered the increase by P2.16 billion.

Foreign debt of the national government reached P5.12 trillion, reflecting a 11.4-percent increase from the end-December 2023 level. The increase was mainly due to P401.74 billion in net external debt availments, while peso depreciation against the US dollar increased external debt valuation by P201.55 billion.

Meanwhile, third-currency adjustments provided an P80.74-billion downward valuation offset. Month-on-month, external debt decreased by 0.9 percent as local- and third-currency fluctuations reduced the peso valuation of foreign currency-denominated debt by P66.60 billion and P30.68 billion, respectively, while net availments added P48.87 billion.

National government-guaranteed obligations decreased by 0.8 percent from its end-December 2023 level to P346.66 billion as of end-December 2024. Guaranteed obligations also narrowed by 17.9 percent month-on-month, behind net repayment of both domestic and external guarantees amounting to P5.25 billion and P66.63 billion, respectively.

Foreign exchange rate fluctuations reduced the level of US- and third currency- denominated guaranteed debt by P2.09 billion and P2.41 billion, respectively.

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