Palay or unmilled rice production may fall 3.5 percent this year due to the contraction of harvest areas and a drop in yield caused by El Niño, the Philippine Statistics Authority said over the weekend.
The PSA said in said palay production in 2015 was forecast to hit 18.30 million metric tons, down from 18.97 million tons last year.
The harvest area may decrease 1.58 percent from 4.74 million hectares in 2014 to 4.66 million hectares this year, while yield per hectare may also drop by 1.99 percent to 3.92 million mt this year from 4 million mt in 2014.
The PSA said production in the fourth quarter of the year might be lower by 1.84 percent to 7.42 million tons from 7.56 million last year.
“Probable reductions in production are expected in Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Bicol Region and Caraga,” the PSA said.
The agency said production in the first quarter of 2016 might increase 0.31 percent from 4.37 million tons to 4.38 million tons due to the expansion of harvest area.
The PSA said corn production this year might fall 2.8 percent to 7.55 million tons from 7.77 million tons in 2014.
Harvest area may contract to 2.57 million hectares, down 1.73 percent from last year’s 2.61 million hectares. Yield may also decline by 1.09 percent to 2.94 metric tons per hectare from 2.98 metric tons per hectare.
The PSA said corn production in the fourth quarter might decrease to 1.76 million tons from 1.84 million tons last year due to lower production in Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Calabarzon and Davao Region.
Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala said based on farmers’ planting intentions, corn production in the first quarter of the coming year might increase by 0.48 percent.
Alcala said from 2.37 million metric tons in the first quarter of 2015, production of corn might grow to 2.38 million tons in the first three months of 2016.
“Almost all regions expect increases in production with probable higher outputs noted in SOCCSKSARGEN, Ilocos Region, Davao Region and Northern Mindanao,” Alcala said.
He added more farmers in SOCCSKSARGEN had plans to plant earlier due to the pronouncement of a stronger El Niño in the succeeding quarter.
In the Ilocos Region, shifting from palay to corn, utilization of infallow areas due to availability of seeds, movement of cropping from the fourth quarter and usage of high quality seeds might contribute to increased production.
Shifting from banana and rain-fed palay to corn in the Davao Region and availability of seed assistance from local government units may boost this quarter’s production.