President Duterte has three main priorities: one, kill drug lords and those guilty of heinous crimes like rape and murder; two, extricate something practical and profitable from the Philippine territorial claim in the West Philippine Sea; and three, share power with the communist rebels to bring to an end the longest communist insurgency in the world. Relatedly, for the Muslim separatist rebels, President Rody offers nothing short of federalism—a concept grand as a vision but mind-boggling in its execution.
Priority No. 1—drugs, is a no brainer. The facts are stark and disturbing: Consider the following:
• 1.7-million Filipinos are drug addicts.
• 20 percent of the country’s 43,000 barangays are hit by drug-related crimes
• Drug lords live like kings at the National Penitentiary.
• Low-level drug cases clog court dockets and delay justice.
• Higher purity methamphetamine from Mexico supplanting less pure Chinese-sourced methamphetamine.
• Bulk shipments still come from China, largely controlled by Chinese organized criminal groups.
• Drug couriers use flights to the Philippines both to smuggle drugs into the country and to trans-ship drugs to other countries.
• More West African drug syndicates use airports to smuggle methamphetamine into the Philippines for onward distribution throughout Southeast Asia.
• Latin American drug trafficking groups now operate locally.
• Casinos should be included in money-laundering controls.
“Philippine authorities are faced with multiple challenges, including the expansion of Mexican-based trafficking organizations, ongoing domestic methamphetamine production, and confronting drug trafficking in rural areas where little state presence exists,” says a recent US State Department report on narcotics in the Philippines.
The West Philippine Sea claim brings into sharp relief two of the biggest and most strategic partnerships of the Philippines—the United States and China. The Philippines is often perceived as a lackey of America. But America has little money to give away. China, on the other hand, has plenty of money. However, of late, it has been on a territory-grabbing spree.
US-Philippine relations are based on strong historical and cultural links and a shared commitment to democracy and human rights. The Philippines is a major non-Nato ally of the US which means that if the former’s territory is invaded, America will come to its defense.
The Manila Declaration signed in 2011 reaffirmed the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty as the foundation for a robust, balanced, and responsive security partnership. Some four million US citizens —including Grace Poe—are of Philippine ancestry.
More than 220,000 Americans live in the Philippines. Nearly all Philippine presidents, with the possible exception of Ferdinand Marcos and the incoming Rodrigo Duterte, were pro-Americans. Marcos was ousted by the Americans in 1986. The US still has to warm up to Duterte and is concerned with his previous human rights record.
The US is the Philippines’ second largest investor, after Japan. Bilateral trade is more than $25 billion. US is the Philippines’ third largest trading partner.
Meanwhile, using its so-called nine-dash line map, China has occupied seven reefs claimed by the Philippines as part of its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone. EEZ does not grant sovereignty but ownership and exclusive economic use of the fishes, minerals and other resources under the waters covered by the EEZ. The seven reefs are: Subi, Gaven, Fiery Cross, Cuarteron, Johnson, Huges and MisChief. China’s nine-dash line map grabs 80 percent of the Philippine EEZ. Manila has sued Beijing for these territorial grabs. The International Arbitral Tribunal on the Law of the Sea is expected to issue a ruling anytime now. The ruling could be favorable to the Philippines but China has said it won’t honor the decision.
Duterte is particularly pissed with China’s occupation of Scarborough Shoal. Scarborough is clearly Philippines territory, having been ceded to Manila by the US in the 1990 Treaty of Washington. According to Justice Antonio Carpio, Scarborough Shoal, being a regular island, is entitled to a 12-mile territorial sea around it. This amounts to 155,165 hectares of maritime space—more than twice the land area of Metro Manila which is 63,600 hectares.
Duterte wants an explanation, particularly from Senator Antonio Trillanes whom he blames for the loss of Scarborough, after the latter made 16 visits to China. Duterte says he can take all kinds of garbage and insult but not the loss of territorial land or waters.
President Obama, on the evening of May 17, called Duterte to congratulate him and stressed the two countries’ shared commitments to democracy, human rights, rule of law and inclusive economic growth.
For his part, Duterte told Obama in effect he will initially joint the western alliance in opposing China’s South China Sea territorial claims. But if nothing moves, he might be forced to talk turkey with China, on a bilateral basis, “if there is no wind to move the sail” in still waters.
As for the power-sharing with the Reds, well in Economics 101, there are three factors of production—land, labor, and capital.
With the CPP taking over four departments—Agrarian Reform, Natural Resources and the Environment, Labor, and Social Welfare and Development, the communists have, in effect, taken over land and labor, or 60 percent of what makes the economy moving and productive.
Included in the takeover are the bureaus, agencies and financial institutions, like the Land Bank, Cocobank, and even the Development Bank of the Philippines. Also, the four departments have more positions than the total NPA regulars and communist cadres. DENR alone has 19,500 people; DAR 12,600, and DoLE and DSWD 2,500 each.
So overnight, our communist friends have become employers, bankers and capitalists. Change, indeed, is coming.